For now, I would like to invite to stage to take the lecture to Meese's great that dornberg. Hi. A year and a half ago, I didn't speak to anyone unless I really had to. But then I found a reason to speak. Since then, I've given many speeches and learned that when you're talking public, you should start with something personal or emotional to get everyone's attention. Say things like Our house is on fire. I wanted to panic or how dare you?
But today I will not do that because then those phrases are all that people focus on. They don't remember the facts. The very reason why I say those things in the first place, we no longer have time to leave out the science. For about a year, I have been constantly talking about our rapidly declining carbon budgets. Over and over again. But since that is still being ignored, I will just keep repeating it. In Chapter 2 on page one hundred and eight in the S.R.
1.5 IPCC report that came out last year. It says that if we are to have a 6 to 7 percent chance of limiting the global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, we had on January 1st, 2018, 420 gigatons of CO2 left to emit in that budget. And of course, that number is much lower today as we emits about 42 gigatons of CO2 every year, including land use. With today's emissions levels, that remaining budgets will be gone within about eight years.
These numbers aren't anyones opinions or political views. This is the current best available science. Though many scientists suggest these figures are too moderate, these are the ones that have been accepted through the IPCC. And please note that these figures are global and therefore do not say anything about the aspect of equity, which is absolutely essential to make the Paris agreement work on a global scale.
That means that richer countries need to do their fair share and get down to real zero emissions much faster and then help poorer countries do the same. So people in less fortunate parts of the world can raise their living standards. These numbers also don't include most feedback loops, non-linear tipping points or additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution. Most models assume, however, that future generations will somehow be able to suck hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 out of the air with technologies that do not exist in the scale required and maybe never will.
The approximate 6 to 7 percent chance budget is the one with the highest odds given by the IPCC. And now we have less than three hundred and forty giga tons of CO2 left to emit in that budget to share fairly.