The Around the NFL podcast. All they want for Christmas is football. Well, if that's the case, we're getting everything we want this year. Thanks, Santa. From the Chris Westling podcast studio, it's Around the NFL. Dan Hansus with Heros Greg Rosenthal, and Mark Cessler. Can you believe it? Week 16, preview in Bunk. How are you, boys?

Feeling good. It is a lot of football this Christmas. This is the most football Christmas there has ever been, and forever more will be.

Right.

Because next year- Can't top it.

-it will be more somehow.

No, because next- It.

Will be more.

-next year, the football Sunday.

-so naive, Greg.

It will move. It will move to Monday, and then.

It's tougher to pull off. At what point does the NFL have the power to just move days themselves?

That's a.

Fair point. Effect the calendar in a granular way. I think that's coming.

It's like NFL 1, birth of Jesus 0, being shoved into the background. The day is literally just about a sport at this point.

I feel like it's less about the assault on Christmas and more the assault on the NBA. They're like, Oh, you had that? That was cute. We're going to try to take you out in a big way.

I feel like that.

That ended-The.

Football is completely.

Different than basketball. The NBA schedule, their counter attack was I saw their schedule, now they have 40 games on Christmas.

Five games, yeah.

Yeah, it used to be like... Basically, it was just like, Michael Jordan's playing today. Everybody tuned in. Anyway, yesterday's show was with Connor Or, by the way. But I want to address something, Greg, you got on me a little bit. You said my common man ranking came down because we had to take another set of photos because of Mark's dentist, named Crentist. I was a little bit sweaty the first round because they didn't have a fan in there.

I took the photos. He said she could surgically or whatever-.

Didn't like that though.

-take out the sweat. I did a service for you then. I helped you. I lifted you.

On-that feels strong. You're still on our list, Mark, for what you did to us. But you said my common man ranking went down. Well, it must be stated that we did get a photo in the prep yesterday for our photoshoot. Oh, you're right. Oh, yeah. This watches on the Fast channels, watch this on YouTube. Let's check out. This is a normal occurrence. What we have here is Greg Rosenthal in the makeup room. It's always multiple makeup people working on Greg. -yeah. -i mean, you just wondering what that's about.

-trays of product and container.

-well, it's the same as you guys. You guys get makeup.

No, it's not.

No, no, no, no. Very often I don't get any hair, but she did it today. But it's important. People should watch this. You can watch it on the Fast channel. -you can.

Watch it. -i'm trying to sag to.

A plot. -deflect. -on YouTube, and I got nothing today. Just look at what a monster I am today. No makeup, no hair. I actually am like 75 years old now. When you see the difference, you'll.

Appreciate it. We used to have an on-site.

Barber here. That's what this track's back to.

Greg was one of the people, or might have been the person because he didn't have enough clout, but he still was, give me a haircut. Then the boss saw Greg getting a haircut. This is my theory and they shut down the whole operation.

The guy was gone.

We'll give Kurt Warner a haircut, but the guy from the podcast? No, this whole thing is over.

I mean, we needed to save money. I liked my guy back then.

If you didn't check out the holiday special and Fearless Predictions from Wednesday, you missed Conor Oar. Go back and check that out. Connor reached out to us this morning and he has a charity endeavor that is really a really nice thing that everyone should check out. It is theholidayfund. Org, Greater Newark, Holiday Fund. They've been doing that for over 80 years, serving the greater, newer community. We put the plug out there and multiple donations pouring in from around the NFL listeners, including multiple $1,000 donations, which is... Let's get hip hop Santa back here, Eric.

Yeah, come on. Thank you, listeners.

Whenever you have a chance to get hip hop Santa back in the mix, he's got to show up.

Here comes Drop the Beans. It really warmed the heart of Connor and us, too. It is awesome how much our listeners.

Showed up. So donate at holidayfund. Org/donation/connor with 1N-2Rs.

I mean, it tells me that among our listener, fan base, I mean, wonderful people, wire to wire mostly, but a giving group of people, but also many of them wealthy. It's a nice.

Combination of both. You know what? I thought we learned a lot from the Hallmark conversation yesterday. Mark, it's not just because someone gave doesn't mean they're wealthy. It might just mean.

They - Wealthy of heart, I mean. Wealthy of spirit. That's not what they're saying. I don't know where you were going with that. I'm saying that inside there's a lot of abundance.

Abundance of football to get to. Let's get to it. Week 16, we previewed the Saturday games and TNF. Speaking of TNF, Mark and I will be handling tonight's recap of Ram's Saints. Greg, you have your Christmas. We don't want to touch anything about religion with Greg after.

The not- No, we celebrate Christmas.

But you are going with your family.

This is our big celebration. Yes, Ellis and Emica both diehard, Ram's fans at this point. We're going and then, yeah, they get on a bird tomorrow night. This is our last night together.

It'll be really fun. I mean, the celebration could go utterly south if the Ram's were electrocuted.

That would be sad, but it would be fun. It's still fun to go to a lot. We haven't been to a regular-season game in two years, so it's.

Fun to go to. In honor of your family having a wonderful night before they head to Japan, I'm locking them up. I'm locking up in the rain, which might be a curse.

That worries me.

Let's go. Let's go, Ram. Whenever you could lock up a Thursday night game involving a 500 team, you got to do it.

Get it out.

I.

Considered it very strongly, and I only didn't do it because I'm going and just.

Don't want to get to know what that. Because you know what? Part of my bad season I'm having is you saying, It's a good lock. It's a good lock. Then cut to 72 hours later and I'm in a ditch with.

Seven bullet holes. I do like them a lot tonight.

Squarely and Last Place, I believe.

Squarely is strong. Actually. I've never been what you have done multiple times, Mark, which is finish last. My new goal is to beat you out. I will not be finishing Last, and it starts with the rams of Los Angeles tonight.

Well, you've given me something to do. Let's go, I'm a game in and out.

I'm a game out.

That's called Squarely. That's called Squarely.

You're not trying. Dan at seven and 8, Mark at 8 and 7, Westbro is 11 and 4, and 14 and 1. That is historical right now.

I told you, I was saying this, Greg, two months ago that you had some magic going on. Admit that there's magic. 14 and 1 is absurd. In this season?

I'm not admitting magic. Some luck and eight weeks to go.

Cestog. You're in seven, so pipe down.

I've done excellent work, eight of those weeks.

All right, let's get to potentially the game of the year. I mentioned this on Wednesday. This game, Ravens at 49ers, is so important to both conferences, both in what can happen at the top of the conference and determining the number one seed, and what happens at the bottom of the conferences and how it can affect the 9ers specifically, but really the Ravens as well potentially, from whether they rest their regular in week 18 because someone is going to be in a very good position after this game and it is gorgeous. We'll start with this, Greg. There are members of The Ravens who are unhappy. This is a game, the spread is the Niners are given five points at home. The Ravens, and I thought about locking up the Niners because we don't have a chance to lock the Niners at home like you go do it. Maybe one of you guys are. But I don't like the Ravens getting all this we're underdogs or disrespected vibe with John Harball leading the fight call. The people in the desert like the Niners here, but the Ravens have been finding a way all year long to win games?

They have been, and I look to the run game right off the bat for both these teams, but especially thinking about how can Baltimore keep up with San Francisco? There's only so much you're going to be able to stop this 49ers offense. Lamar is going to have to have a great game. They're going to have to be able to score in this game. I think they look a little bit to the Rams game and the way the Rams were able to run the ball on San Francisco. Some of the numbers San Francisco has against the run. Overall, very mediocre. They just gave up 234 yards on the ground to the Arizona Cardels. They've missed a lot of tackles this year. The Ravens are really good at breaking tackles and getting yards after contact. I think they will miss Keaton Mitchell because you lose that explosivesiveness. But a down-to-down running game from The Ravens and certainly from Lamar Jackson gives them a chance. To me, these two teams, Mark, are old school because one of the big analytical precepts is, well, running backs are somewhat replaceable and off-ball linebackers are somewhat replaceable. To me, these two teams got there here because they're so varied running the football.

For the 49, the Ravens, it's less about running backs themselves. It's more about Lamar. They're here because their off-ball linebackers are fantastic and can actually shut down opposing passing game. They're old school teams, and I'm really.

Excited about that. I'm with you that you can puncture the liners on the ground. I'm at your point, we just saw it last week with a pretty floating away offense in general in Arizona. For me, it's like Baltimore's defense, which has been the number one scoring defense, and it leads the league in sacks. That to me, if you can disrupt Brock Purdy, which we saw rarely, but in that one little down streak he had, pressure was part of that. But the offense, the way that it's operating right now in San Francisco, I used to always try to compare teams to the 89 Niners. This team is better than the 89 Niners. They're in so many different ways. They really are. That was one of the best teams I've ever seen. But what we're seeing right now, over the last six games, they're winning by 18.8 points per game. There's been no way to muzzle them on offense. A lot of it is like, how do you score and keep up with the Niners? How do you stop the 9ers? No one's been able to do it. I think Baltimore gets as good of a chance as anyone just based on.

How they've kept games so close. Cleveland did a nice job. Certainly, weird weather and a different part of the season.

I thought that was a.

Different part of the season.

That was a legit weather game to me, but Cleveland did do a nice job that Cleveland defense is a little bit different than what the Niners have faced before. Ravens have a bit of a different defense. I think it's like the Ravens had been close in every one of their games. Even when there are three losses, they've been close. But this is a historical outlier. You have to go back to the 1970 merger to find games like this, where it's the two teams in December with the best record in the NFL. The last time this actually happened in December, and you'd think it would be more frequent, was the 1981 Niners versus the '81 Bengals, which wound up being.

A Super Bowl man. Christmas Night, I feel like Monday Night Football has been home runs with these games.

I feel bad because they might be listening, those guys that would just smoke the cigarettes in Park Avenue and figure out the schedule. But schedule has been outrageously good these last six weeks or so with these island games and these big time matchups. Yeah, I think I'll point it out again because it can't be understated. They lost three games in a row, the Niners, and they did it with Debo Samuel injured basically the whole time. They got hurt in that Browns game. They got Williams, franchise left tackle out during that time. I think Christian McAfrey got banged up in that Browns game, too. That was such an outlier. Debo Samuel has seven touchdowns in the last three weeks. You could look at Baltimore and say, Well, they've been doing it all year. They find ways to stop teams. They're so athletic in the middle of their defense. They got a lot of depth. They can figure out ways. I don't think you could slow down this offense because a Brock purdy is playing at this level and he stays healthy, I don't see this team score in less than 30 points in any week for the rest of the season.

I think we are looking at something historic here. If the Ravens, Greg, who I haven't liked as much as you have from the start of the season, if they go to San Francisco and win, that is incredible. I just don't see it, but that would tell you so much about that team.

I agree, and yet I don't think it's going to happen. I'm locking up the 49ers in this one. I think there's a path. It's doing the whole thing where you limit possessions. That's how you keep it under 30s, just these long drives the Ravens. Purdys numbers are so good against everything. Nick's going to kill you for this.

By the way. Why? Nick Westling is going to kill you. You're locking up the 9ers at home. This is not going to.

The end here. I'm over legislating what is a good Lock and what isn't.

I'm just saying he's been.

Hot on you.

Two great teams.

Right, when we started this, the idea of locking one 11 and three team versus another 11 and three team would somehow be anything, but that's what the lock competition is for.

New Keeper is not going to be happy.

That's all I'm saying. Well, we're not here to have to legislate that. The one thing I did tell Madison behind the glass before the show, I'm locking the Niners 2. I don't really care what anyone says. Oh, no. I'm not coming in last in this thing.

-yes.

Eric? -i get that business. Yes, Eric.

Well, let's handle this one first. Here we go. This worries me. Yeah, this is.

Quite the conundrum, guys.

Go ahead. This annoys me. I love this.

Hey, heroes, we squeaked out another win somehow last week. We've done that a lot this year. A lot of sweating going on in fourth quarters. This week, though, it's not going to be so close. The 49ers are going to.

Roll.

Over the Ravens. If Gregie had any marbles at all, he'd lock the Ravens for the 10th time this year. It's true. And go mono e mono. I doubt he'll do it because he's going to say, I don't really see that happening, nick. I can't do it. But take a chance. Live a little. Go with your boys. Lock up the 49ers. I have news. Christmas came a little early for the Wesleyan Brothers this year. Baby brother Larry had a little boy named him Ezekiel Christopher Westling. For real? Yes. The middle name is after his uncle. Mom and baby are super healthy. We're all happy. I want to wish you guys all a merry Christmas.

I hope to see you soon.

Good day. How about that? Congratulations to Larry Ezekiel, Christopher Westling. That is wonderful. There he is.

If you're watching on YouTube, you can see Larry.

That's awesome.

Well, Larry and Ezekiel, I think.

I call him Zeke. Yeah, Ezek. Ezek, Chris. Yes, congratulations and Merry Christmas to the whole Westling family. That is, you're all locking the Niners.

This is.

Great for you.

This is.

Great for you, though. Oh, yeah. I wonder what's going to happen here. Niners by 37.

I don't know. I don't know.

As the rams flail away on.

Thursday night. The fact that we're all doing it, yeah, the fact that we're all doing it and probably all of America is doing it, that concerns me a little.

But how about what nick said there?

What?

I mean, you've been riding The Ravens all season and now you're going to turn.

Your back on them. But the point of the locks is you're not as emotional. That's what you say to me. I don't think they're as good as the 49ers. I just don't.

Yeah, but, Greg, can I count it? The point of everything is the show. Entertainment. Yes. It isn't just.

Simply-but Craig's been missing the point.

He's leaning above all. This would be great for the show. My point has been... Christmas Night, Wesleyan versus Rosenthal showdown. Just like.

The old-Amazing.

For the listeners. Actually, this works out well for you. My point has been to destroy this competition. I have said for years, and I've done it. Right now, if I win for the fourth time in five years, it's over. It's just like it's lost its.

Can you imagine someone sounding.

More unlikable? I'm going to do it for the show. I'm locking the Ravens. There we go. We'll see what happens, man. Christmas Night. That's a man. There we go. I'm going to do it for nick and for Zik.

There we go. I see one man on this side of the table.

But the best thing here is now I can enjoy the Ravens pulling off and upset because Nick's with me. I didn't even think of that. That was not on purpose. Come on.

I'm disgusted by the whole thing. Anything else on this game?

I'm definitely going to lose this luck.

I do think the Ravens love to disguise coverages. Brock Purdy.

What if I move to the.

Ninerous nation? I will assassinate you.

Brock Purdy versus disguise coverages sometimes is here. That's the way to beat them is get a couple, not fluky turnovers, but get some turnovers. Ken, you confuse him a little bit, and Ken, Kyle, who makes a living building this whole thing around McAfrey. The way defense is just key on McAfrey in every single way as a runner and as a passer and everything in motion and all that. If any team had the linebackers to try to slow them down, it'd probably be the 49ers, but the next team would be the Ravens. The Chanahan picks on those linebackers every week, maybe Rokan and our guy, Patrick Queen, who's really improved. Maybe he's the guy. That was my way of buying time as I tried to think of his name. Did they pick up his rookie option? Yeah, Rokan is.

Really more. Did they not even pick up Queen's option? I don't think.

They did. I think you're right.

He's been a different player since Rokan's been.

Anyway, that game, we'll see if that's a preview of Super Bowl 58, and that is a lot of fun. All right, let's work backwards through these other island games. So it is a triple header on Christmas because why the hell not? Nfc East affair, giants at Eagles. Let's give, and this is Eagles, given 12 points here to the G-men. So very clear that in the desert, the idea of Tommy Cutlet Mania, distant memory, I tend to agree with that. I also tend to agree with anyone out there that agrees that something doesn't seem right about the Eagles. And you had Jalen Hertz, the quarterback, who, by the way, did you know he he blew off Drew Lock after the game? There's a shot of Drew Lock looking for Jalen at midfield after the game, and he goes, I guess he's sick. He caught him on the mic.

I don't know. That doesn't sound like everything we've heard about Jaylen.

I'm just telling you what happened. He wasn't there. And after the game, he made a comment about people not necessarily being all in. He clarified himself, or at least did some damage control leading up to this matchup with the giants.

When.

You think.

About holistically about.

The things we want to accomplish and everything that we're trying to do, that all runs through me. That all starts with me. And so when I say we, I.

Mean me.

Because I'm the point guard out there. I'm the one that makes everything go. I'm the guy that everyone trusts in to do and set the pace.

For everything.

That's in how I play, that's in my leadership, that's in every aspect of the game and that comes with.

The.

Shoes that I walk. Just to be clear, Heard said after the loss last week that he was questioning the team's commitment level. We've been poking around this what's going on with the Eagles? They dumped the DC, promote Matt, Patricia, and now they're on a losing streak. This feels, though, Mark, like a perfect get-right-game at home against the giants.

Yeah, I think the point spread is a little rich. They've been very successful. This roster has been very successful against most of these giants players in recent history, and I think that matters. They know each other really well. But I think Hertz is on point about the Eagles. You're right, we've been poking around, we've been seeing it. It's been a real skid. They've had a tough schedule, and I don't just chalk it up as just Ls. It's like they've been losing to very good teams who are viewing Philadelphia as the number one target. In this three-game skid, though, it's been a real disaster. I thought that we saw James Bradbury really melt down in the last game and victimized the team. They also, as a group, ranked 31st in defensive EPA, burst drop back over this three-game losing streak. I mean, teams are getting the best of them. They have not been able to run the ball since week four. I think early on when they're trying to figure themselves out, although they can run still, they can still be like that team from last year, they averaged less than 72 yards per game on the ground since week four.

Hertz has the most interceptions from the pocket of any quarterback in the league this season.

Too many.

Turnovers this year. Too many turnovers. I think that there was an assumption, and it wasn't an incorrect assumption, that his rise last season and doing QB index, he hung at one or two all season long for me. After he saw what he was, he's not been that player. And it's a lot of other stuff happening around him, too. It's not just him, but they've just looked a step or two down from who they were, and it is part schedule. I still do trust them. But you don't find teams like this firing leaders and coordinators in December. That's atypical and it tells you something is going on more than we would even.

Realize behind the scenes. Yeah, I still think that is a monster red flag. I listen to some Eagle's coverage, the PHY podcast on the Eagles with Bo Wolf. I always enjoy. They don't think they're even some Super Bowl contenders anymore in Philadelphia. I'm pretty close to that point too. They're plus 18 scoring margin for the year. That is closer maybe to how they've played in terms of week to week than their record. Nick Ziriani said something this week, make no mistake about it, and when blame is going on the offensive coordinator, this offense is run the exact same way the offense was run last year and the year before that. This offense is my offense. It should go on me. I think it goes unfairly on Brian. I thought right there, he hit on it. You got so close to it right there. The offense is running the same way, and I think it's very predictable at this point because they run the same concepts over and over, and I think you're seeing this a little bit with Arthur Smith, too, what worked last year? I even remember when their Patriots teams with braided were coming off their best years, if they didn't change it enough, teams would catch up to what they were doing.

It's a boom or bust type of offense where he is, hurts, attempting very difficult throws, and he actually hits on a lot. I think he's playing very well, and by very well, I just mean he's a top eight or nine quarterback. He's a fourth year player who is a second round pick who's a top eight or nine quarterback. But he's down quite a bit, like you say, Mark, from where he was a year ago. I think the biggest thing is game management. There's been a lot of talk of like, Oh, are you a game manager? Are you a difference makers? It's like, Pert's not manage games well. He's made bad decisions in the biggest spots. Spots over and over. Even that Jets game, some games that they won, in the biggest spots, he's made bad decisions. I think he's playing well, but he's been a little scattershot late in games.

But Dan, do you think that there is an element, or we find out after that? We know he's overtly not been fully healthy in a bunch of games. He was literally ill in.

This last-He's playing.

I think he's playing through.

Some tough stuff. 70% of the League is on their backup quarterback. The Eagles have had him week after week. I don't.

Mind I'm skipping the interview, though, because I don't know if you happen to see him in his postgame press conference on Monday. I was like, he should not be doing a postgame press conference. He looks so disastrous and sick. I was just like, keep him away from everyone.

It wasn't an interview. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're in the fraternity and you lock out a big moment there, you go and dab them up.

Because that means something. But maybe.

He was throwing up. I don't know. I don't care. I'm just pointing out that Lock was looking for him. He couldn't find him. 17 turnovers for Hertz so far this year. He had eight all last season. So that's been a big part of the offense. It's just not as clean. Nothing's been as clean with the Eagles, the giants. I don't think we need to say too much about them. Let's move on. Raiders at Chiefs. This is the first game of the Christmas Day coverage. This is the Nance, Romo, Wolfson. Listen, they got big paychecks, but you got Nance, Romo, Buck, Akeman all working on Christmas Day.

You know this is officially, and I looked this up, the 78 Patrick Mahom's game that Tony Romo has.

Operated as the-I can't tell if that's a joke or not. It sounds right. 78.

I think that's right. That's impossible. It is a joke.

I feel like he's time traveled and done multiple games repeatedly. Yes, we're at the same juncture once again. The Raiders, of course, they're coming up. Is this an episode of a rest stop?

What is?

This is an episode of rest stop with Greg Rosenthal. Greg, the Raiders feels like they haven't played in a long time because they played Thursday night. They got the Chargers organization blown up. Now they get extra rest against the Chiefs. Is it going to matter?

Thank you for that sound on rest stop. Good app. Four extra days. Couldn't hurt. I do.

Remember thinking- Couldn't hurt. I need more than that.

Well.

The-i think he built a whole.

Segment around this. You're reporting from the Vince Lombardi rest stop.

Chiefs are favored by 10. The Raiders first game against the Chiefs, they jumped out to a faster. I thought Aden O'Cano played quite well in that game. He also played quite well while helping to drop a 60 burger on the chargers last time around. I'm with you, Dan. I'm sick of waiting for the Chief's offense to get better. Is he going to? No, I'm going to lock up the Raiders. Ten points here. Come on, Al. I think the Raiders could keep it closer than 10. The Chief's offense has actually gotten worse since their by week. I thought, oh, maybe they would reset. They're 13th in the EPA since the by 18th with the pass. How about Antonio pierce? I know that the schedule is a huge part of it, but they were literally 26th in defense when they fired Josh McDaniels, EPA. Since that moment, and they're three and three, I believe, in terms of win-loss, they're second. I don't know if he's going to ever keep his job, but if you somehow beat the chiefs in arrowhead, that would be a way to keep your job.

I really think that he should be considered. I think a lot of it, this has been a case study in the human side of coaching matters. Josh McDaniels just lost this team a long time ago, and it was like every little nook and cranny you heard reporting-wise, was like more and more issues between former coach and teammates, everyone wanted out of there. This has been a different experience. That said, the Chiefs under the Mohomes have dominated this matchup. They have absolutely dominated it. But this is a different Chiefs offense. We are seeing it week after week, and the numbers start to become remarkable for a Patrick Mohomes-led operation. They have the most drops in the NFL, 26. They've had four-plus drops in three games. Some of them have been on an island performances where it's like, these guys are melting down. It's like, I am over. I'm with you, Greg, with a sense. I am done expecting them to do anything else. He leads the league by a large margin over the last couple of years of touchdowns to running backs, and that's what half their passing game is in the red zone now.

I want to add a couple of things here, and I'm still smarting. This is one of the great fantasy teams I ever built, and it was my homes in large part that got me picked off in round one. So it should be obvious that he's going to do what he's done literally all season long. He's going to throw for 201 yards, two touchdowns, maybe a pick, but or, because this is just the way I think, now he's going to become the homes against the Raiders. For everyone else that's still in the playoffs, he'll throw for 406 touchdowns. Totally could see that. My guy, John Boy, Jimmy O'Brien, I talked about he's a great lip reader and he does baseball stuff. He's doing more football stuff, apparently.

Literally, just after you suggested it. I feel like you might have given him an idea there.

I don't know if that's quite accurate, but I like the idea of that. He read the lips of the Holmes after the latest Cedarius Tony meltdown. He goes back to the sideline after Tony drops it and it becomes an interception, leads to a Patriots touchdown. He plops down on the bench, my homes, and he goes, Apologies, but this is journalism. I just don't get it, man. Man, referring to Tony. You know exactly what he means when he says that. Here he is still targeting guys like Edarius, Tony. The frustration around this team is real. It makes sense that they're going to figure it out, but they haven't yet, so I don't think they will. It's going to be a closer game than people realize.

This was the Jared Stidham game last year where he made it interesting and a weird, like holiday.

Raiders Chiefs game. Jared Stiddam is so annoyed because he was like, I'm supposed to be the quarterback of the Broncos. That made so much sense that I was the quarterback by Halloween, but he is still... I don't think he's taking a snap up there this year?

I don't think he has. Well, it didn't go according to what we predicted.

Yeah. All right, let's go to the... I can't even keep track. Oh, this Christmas Eve Night. Patriots at Broncos. Broncos. Nice segue. I like those accidental segues. Bronco is giving six and a half to the Pats here, which is technically within our lock zone. This is easy money. If one were so inclined, Rich Isen on the call with Kurt Warner and Jamie Erdahl of Good Morning Football. Greg. Yeah. The Broncos feels like this.

Is- Reluctantly.

To weigh in. This is just like a back pocket W that keeps them in the playoff race? Or, because I know you think Russell Wilson is still bad, the Patriots have a chance to make this game close.

They have a chance because I don't think the Broncos are so unbeatable and they play a type of schedule or a type of football that invites close games. They only have a 24 % chance to make the playoffs to the Broncos according to the New York Times predictor. But if they go three and a no over the next three weeks, which on paper sounds like, okay, that's a big ass to go three and a no, it goes up to 80 %. I'm torn here because they got the Patriots. The Broncos are the Patriots at home, the Chargers at home, and then their toughest game left is at Raiders.

That is inviting.

That is doable, and they are... I apologize to my Uncle Dave.

Uncle Dave taking a hiter here.

You still listening to the show? Maybe he still does. You still. Justin, a.

Big.

Broncos fan, my cousin. This is the team I don't want to see in the playoffs because it's just the same thing every week. It's like Russell Wilson, hold, hold, hold, check down. Hold, hold, hold, check down. Then you have the long passes to Sutton, and that's all fine. But I watched this team and we saw them on Saturday night against the Lions. To me, they're middling, but they're midling enough where they remind me of old Patriots teams as well they just beat the bad teams on their schedule, and the Patriots are.

One of those. They've got a good defense, the Patriots. They're about 14 points per game since week 10, and that's been legit and that's been against a couple of good teams.

They're scoring 13 points a game.

That's the thing. I think.

It's.

Like- That's where the issue lies. Their offense was, I would have described it as dead months ago. We have to come up with new terms and new words to describe what's happening now. More of a? The idea that Bailey Zappi was going to come in and change the world. He was 17 for 19 in the first half last week. Then they go out.

He's definitely been an upgrade. He's been better, but then as a team, though- That's to the 29th best quarter-back.

As a team, they put up 57 yards in the second half. I don't love their injury situation either. Like Remondry Stevenson has been out for a while, still doing with an ankle injury, not practicing.

He's now day to day, they're saying.

That's possible, but you already have nothing in the passing game. Juju Smith-Schusters banged up with an ankle injury. Hunter, Henry, didn't practice, blah, blah, blah. It's like, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter even if all.

Those guys are there. One of these, I mean, The Patriots, don't matter. There are several. We're now at the point of the season where these teams are playing out the string, The Patriots, and every fan wants them to.

Lose this game. Well, they matter if they can get Sean Payton to start screaming at Russell Wilson in a manner that when I rewatched it.

It was-They.

Talked about that. -was almost uncomfortable because Russell just sits there and takes it. To me, I'm fine with coaches yelling at players, of course. But he.

Was just- He's coming from that away.

He's just being a bully, though.

What are we talking about? That's not uncomfortable. Everyone's like, everything needs to be sanitized now. That's a fired-up coach. The player, who his job is to listen to the.

Coach processing it. Or to yell back. Processing it. Maybe yell back a little bit. But here's the reason why I hate it is because Payton's not mad at Russell. He is mad at Russell Wilson in that moment. But the reason he yells is because he's mad at the call in the situation, and he's mad that he didn't just call a touchdown, that all he had to do was challenge it, and he had a touchdown. Sean Payton had just cost them seven points in that exact moment. He had totally blown it. He's mad about that, and he's yelling at.

Russell Wilson. Now you're yelling at him.

It just is like.

Come on, bro. How do you want him to respond to you?

Now you're yelling.

Come at me, bro.

Mike McGlinchey on Sean Payton yelling in the direction of Russell Wilson last Saturday. I think it's been completely blown out of proportion. All that is is competitive fire and frustration of certain things that.

Go wrong. I'm more.

Inclined to go down the ladder. I agree.

With that. I'm the one that was saying that this doesn't matter.

I agree with that. But it just was unique in that moment. Even Payton tried to say I was mad about the call. Well, then what are you talking about?

Here's good news, by the way. The Holiday Classic, see we have this branded now. The Holiday Classic is back on NFL Network Christmas Eve. Watch a special night of prime time football as the Patriots take onthe Broncos, the NFL Holiday Classic. It's Sunday, 8:00 PM Eastern, only on NFL Network and streaming on NFL Plus. What, Mark? What could you possibly say here?

I'm just going to say we've scattered 14 games on literal holidays.

I'm reading a promo for our network.

I know. It's the Holiday Classic. They're doing a great job. I'm excited about them. Have a nice time.

What do you want? What discourse are we having out.

Of that reading? Literally games on Christmas are not part of a holiday classic.

This is our special holiday class.

Because it's on the -.

There's like 42 games happening in.

Three days. Mark, it's NFL Networks game. The other games aren't.

I.

Technically get it.

It's their holiday class. It's an annual tradition, maybe.

Well, I think it's more fitting than either of you do. I couldn't be more in favor of it.

Let's take a break and we'll get to the draft. All right, welcome back. It is time now for the first overall pick in the ATN draft presented by Draft Kings. Greggie, you are on the clock.

I will take the game of the day.

That.

Day. This is.

December 24th.

This will be Christmas Eve. Christmas Eve. It will be Sunday. It is the Cowboys at the Dolphins. The Dolphins favored by a scant, one point. How about that? Their minus 108 over under is 50. Look, I think this is going to be a score-test. Let me ask you a question. I like.

That more. If the Cowboys comport themselves in a more competitive manner against the Bulls, this is probably, this is Cowboys by three, right?

I.

Think people are freaking out about them on the road now, which is not they're three and four on the road and.

Undefeated at home. I think you're right. I'll just say this where nobody's underdog. That last week's results had a direct impact. Not just the Cowboys losing that game, but mostly that. Also the Dolphins winning 30-nothing in such a convincing fashion, because you start worrying about this Cowboys defense specifically, last in the league in success rate allowed. There's one thing to like, okay, we're bad, or there's this, or you can find some weird stat. Success rate is a very down to down stat of like, do we give up four yards very regularly when the other team runs it? On third and two, do we ever get stops when they run against us? They were 31st in the league going into the Buffalo game. Buffalo took advantage of it in a way that other teams have it. You have to stay close, you have to get the lead. The Dolphins are a very different running attack in terms of how they run it. They also might be missing their entire right side of the offensive line, which really is a bummer, Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt. They might be down to one starter left on their offensive line, which is Tyrone Armstead.

Even he's banged up, but I think he's going to play. But their running game, Miami's, has been really good this year. As great as Waddle and Hill are, and they'll make some plays here, I actually do think the way that Miami can win this game is to stay patient with that running game and attack like the Bills did. Marquise Bell and Demone Clark. Two names I don't know if we've said once all year on this show, and they are the weaknesses of the Cowboys. They are the Cowboys off-ball linebackers. You get that outside zone working with Mostar, H-Han was back at practice Thursday. I can see them having a lot of success on the ground against the Cowboys in a way that I don't really see the Cowboys doing it on the other side.

What happened against Buffalo, I think sometimes you get games where it's a fair question to say, Did Buffalo put a blueprint out there for other teams that can run the ball well to try to mimic? The Dolphins are one of those teams. They lead the league in yards per rush, 3.5 yards after contact. They're automatically effective on the ground. But a lot of it is some of the runs we've seen from A-Chan from Mostar all year long when it's working, it's working. I think what it allows you to do if you're Miami, especially with all these offensive line injuries, I'd rather try to engage our run blocking than our pass protection if we can to offset Micah Parsons. Two is good at getting the ball out, but if you can run like they did last week with Buffalo and James Cook, it takes Micah Parsons out of the picture. It takes that whole side of their defense out of the picture. They are really banged up, but I really think this is one way where Miami can do it. I don't have a problem with it being favored by three.

I mean, if the- Favored by what?

By one or three, but one's even nicer.

If the cowboys lay another egg on the road here, they'll have done it again. They'll have snuckered everybody because they'll prove to me that, Oh, okay, I know what's going to happen. Whether it's the wildcard round or the divisional round, you really are a team that you're a front running type team that can bully teams in your building, but you're vulnerable on the road. I still don't think that's who this team is. I think this is a different team. I like them. I already said on Wednesday, I think the Bulls can steal this division. That's a fearless prediction.

Are they going to do it?

However, however, let's also keep in mind the Dolphins still have a two-game cushion here in the east and they could put a chokehold. The whole goal for the Dolphins, and I know every Dolphins fan, even though we don't always see eye to eye, I'd be the same way as you. We want to do everything in our power to not have it come down to week 18 because I hate that situation if the Bills keep winning here. What a bummer it would be to let this division get away after you've had such a great year. You can beat the Cowboys at home and then hell, the Bulls could slip up one of the next two weeks or you can go beat Baltimore next week and then the division is done. But I'm just saying for a team that's 10 and three or 10 and four, we should give them the credit that they could pull that off and we shall see. The Dolphins here, I think the goal here is make week 18 not matter because if it does, I don't.

Feel good. Like, Greg, you mentioned this to some degree, but a lot of teams, it's December going through this, they have 17 players on their injury report, Miami. A bunch of those guys will play.

Right. Tyreke was, as of Thursday, is not practiced.

Right. I guess it's like, Tyreke will also feel like there's been four games where I thought he broke his ankle, but 10 minutes later, he's running faster than ever. He's a quick healer and maybe you get the version of him you expect, but maybe not. Their offensive line is about as banged up outside of maybe Cleveland and a few others as any team in the league. That does affect, too, to what missing offensive line in last year was there were big sample sizes that showed the difference. That's why I think this ground game with a minus, Jonathan Hankins for Dallas.

Is the way to go. He missed the thrower too in that Tennessee game that McDaniel in a clip that's been circulated pretty widely from Hard Knocks called out. I love that clip because McDaniel starts by pointing the finger at himself, showing the team like, I have accountability. Look how much I messed up. I should have had better play calls here. The other two players he called out very interesting to me was Tua and Jalen Ramsey for specific plays. He did it in a very constructive, positive way, but that was almost Bella, check-y and calling out the best player saying- That's.

What you do. That's what a good coach does. Jalen Ramsey has really been incredible this year. Way better than he was last year, even though he's a year older coming off surgery. He's a better player. He erased Garrett Wilson last week. You look at all his data points. He's been one of the best cornerbacks in the league. That was a major acquisition by Miami that is fortified their.

Back in.

But a big-found GEO defense requires a cornerback like that in a lot of cases. Since he's returned, and I think we saw it right away, they've allowed seven touchdowns and had nine interceptions. He really changed.

Their pastime. His match-up against CD-LAM, and he could travel with them a decent amount, is as good as it gets. The other thing I'm just watching is, was it just a bad week for Dallas offensively? Because this is a very tough Dolphins defense. Over the last two months, they've really come into their own. Their defensive lines playing great. Wilkins, Zach Seeler, Bradley Chubb. That game against the jets. I know it was the jets, but it was the most dominant defensive performance I saw from any team all year. I know it was against the jets, but I just mean, the level of ferosity and dominance was next level. Now it's against an offensive line, which has been great until last week. That's a really good matchup win the.

Cowboys had it. There wasn't a better, more impactful pass rusher than Bradley Chubb last week either. If he's going off, that's major problems for Jack.

I'm picking the Dolphins in this game. What do you guys got?

You know what? I want the Cowboys to show us that they're different. I have some doubt that crept in after last week, but that was also a tough spot in Buffalo. I like.

The Cowboys. I take Miami by a field goal.

Miami.

Meaning they're going to win 3-0.

A Miami. I'm not moving on till I get a Miami.

Miami. Thank you.

All right, let's move to the second pick. It's mine. Here's a tricky situation. Oh, tricky-dicky situation. Because I want in. I like watching the games live, okay? It matters to me. I want in on this Brown's Magic. But then I think to myself, well, that my Mark doesn't... Does Mark Carey... He said he's historically a Browns fan. But I don't want to take that game. I want in on the magic, but I don't want to take that from him. I'm going to say to you, Mark, do you want the Browns game?

Yeah, I do.

Okay, so then I will go in a different direction. Merry Christmas.

Thank you.

Let's then go to the team around the NFL. I think this is telling that when I'm looking at the games I feel most comfortable with Picks. It's the last two weeks I'm looking at the Vikings and I'm thinking, Oh, they're a team that's going down. Yet they really did. They were up 17-3 late last week and they looked like they had figured some things out and gotten some swagger back, and then they let that game, of course, get away, lose to Jake Browning late. Now their backs are against the wall. I like that on one hand, Minnesota at home, desperate for the win, but I also wonder if the Lions have shaken out of their punk and the Vikings are now getting the Lions when they are in a good spot. You got Jared Goff playing indoors, coming off a five-touchdown game. This does feel potentially to me, Greg, like the kill shot of the team around the NFL. I don't want it to be that. I'm pulling hard for the team of ATL, but I don't like this matchup for them. I just don't.

It. Well, they have them twice in the last three weeks. The Vikings can probably make the playoffs if they split those. If they lose this game, their chances to make the playoffs go down to still 35 %, which isn't bad. They basically, I ran it a few different ways, they got to go two and one in the final three weeks.

When you say, I ran it a few different.

Ways, what does that mean? I mean, just on the little play out. No, I don't do anything. In this case, The New York Times, there's a few different ones, ESP and S1-2, where you do the combo of, okay, they lose this game and I have that game. You do a three and a half, you do one and two. Does it matter? In this case, it doesn't matter much because they have all division games left. They got to win two out of three. It's basically the end of the story to have a chance. They'll have a good chance. They could afford one more loss, but at some point you got to stop the bleeding. This is that point. I'm just fascinated to see Flores versus Jared Goff in this matchup, and that blitz. Going after him, the offensive line played really well last week. Detroit's with Frank Ragnau back at center. They're healthy as they've been all-season long, and they really handled what Denver tried to do. I think Minnesota is a more aggressive, better version of that defense, but if they can block it up or forget it. I think they'll start going up and down the field like Browning did at the end of last week.

I think that's the matchup because the numbers that are out there show that obviously in a Flores, we know that they're blitz happy. They rush six-plus guys more than any team in the league. They rush 4-5 and other variations pretty much more than a team in the league. Goff has actually been successful in that situation. When he's dealt with a 4-5 man rush this season, he's got 23 touchdowns, which leads any other quarterback in that situation in the entire league. I like a couple of things for the Lions. I thought they got out of theirunk last week, big time. We got the pristine version of golf. They're running the ball really well. To me, essentially, they don't play outside again for the rest of the year. That matters. I think they're the team that you don't want to stick them in the elements. This game in general, this division in general, if you look at the Packers 2, are just littered with... The future of the division is happening right before our eyes because Jameer Gibbs has been statistically one of the best running backs and versatile running backs in the League since he came back from his injury.

Sam Leporter is a star. Jordan Addison for the Vikings is a future star. There's a lot of young talent. Jameson Williams is finally showing. He came off as one of his best games. You want to see more, but that's the start. Daniel Hunter, who they finally kept in this cost-cutting offseason, leads the League in sacks right now. There's a lot to like here from a.

Two-team-building perspective. Also, I like, let's think about this, Brian Floors basically runs the type of defense that I play in Madden. I thought I played Madden for a few years now. But he either blitzes the house or he has this drop eight concept where it's like one or the other. They say he's one of the more extreme ways to run a defense in the league. It's a popular college concept. I'm just curious to see how that affects or how they can get burned. There is a crazy stat out there that the Lions have a chance to be the first team in a long time. I'm trying to think who would have been. To have two 1,000 yard receivers and two 1,000 yard rushers. They don't get talked up as much as the Niners, for instance, for having infinite weapons. Maybe the stars aren't quite as bright, but they have so many ways to beat you. I think that makes Minnesota vulnerable, too, to get beaten by their aggressive blitzing. Goff is not Joe Montana. Goff is not going to the Hall of Fame, but he can read a defense and get the ball out quickly.

I just hate this matchup. I hate this matchup for a.

Team of ATN. I'm worried too. I did pick the Lions in this game.

By the way, the Lions. How about this? Detroit fans that have been listening to the podcast from the very beginning, and you already know it. But for those that don't know, it's been 30 years since the Detroit Lions won a division title. Only your brownies, Mark. This is fun. They're a sandwich between the Browns and the Jets. '89 for the Browns, as you know. 2002 for the Jets and Raiders as well. 1993, the last time the Lions won their division, which means they actually never won the NFC North, which was reconfigured in 2002. Here is their chance to do it. All they got to do is win. They win the NFC North, and that will be a well-deserved division title. As a former team around the NFL, I feel proud because the idea that we would have got them the year before they became mainstream.

I wanted to do them again. You guys were against that. I'd be having fun with them.

Right up the avenue of Flash Point Focus.

It's not as fun, though, Greg, because we set them off and they were a good team from the jump this year. We like to find a.

Team to get behind. They've still exceeded expectations. They're way over the...

Aren't they favorite to the.

Win division? Sure, but they're over under for wins. It was nine and a half, I believe, and they're already at 10. They're by the way, minus three in this game, minus 170, so they are favored to win their division. I think your points about all the stars in this game are right. We've said, like Gibbs and Laporte, what a great combination. But I'm not sure we've quite circled how good they are. Right now I'm with you. Jameer Gibbs, other than Kristen McAfrey, I'm trying to think of which running back I would rather have this week. Jameer Gibbs, the explosivesiveness is just crazy. The combination of skills is just crazy. Laporta is doing things in terms of his numbers that haven't been done since Mike Dica. It's one of the great rookie seasons by a tight end in history. These two are among the very best. I was thinking about all pro tight end. Okay, it's probably Kidal 1. Who would be number two? It's very possibly Sam LaPorta.

I don't have a problem with that.

It's pretty amazing.

Across the way, people were killing them for trading away TJ Hawkinson. It's like, well, you just went and got a better player. Well, he's excellent, too. I like Hawkinson too, but it wasn't just.

Like-i think they both won that trading.

Nice.

Win-win. I agree. All right, let's move. Up next, Mark, and I think we know where.

You're going. Yeah, I will go Cleveland at Houston. I think this is a classic case where if Houston were healthy, this would feel like not even trap game because they're tied to top their-It would be a great game. -absurt division. It would be a very intriguing matchup. The problem is it just does not sound like we're getting CJ Strat.

I hate that, by the way. When you have a head injury, you miss a game and playing it smart. When it's still hanging around now into week two, you start to worry about when we.

See this guy again. Yeah, because I thought watching that when it happened, because you're waiting to find out how serious some of these concussions are if you're going to come back next week. It looked bad. I mean, he looked completely.

Out of his phase. I said he's having sensitivity to light still like a.

Week later. Yeah, so he's like, that's not great. Nico Collins did come back to practice. Jimmy Ward for the Texans came back to practice. Will Anderson does not. He did not. I don't know what's going to happen with that one. That's a big deal against a Brown's offensive line that is completely battered right now. Will Anderson and this defense in general for Houston, with or without Will Anderson, I think what we saw last week when you guys like Jonathan Grinard and Derek Barnett, Jerry Hughes, Derek Stingley, they were really well-coached, interesting defense. Because Cleveland is so banged up along the offensive line, so that's the version of what Joe Flacko could be put into that I don't love because it's been a great story. Last week was a heroic performance to come back through the mistakes that he made. But there were a lot of turnover worthy plays from Flacko last week. They're one ofthe worst, he's made them better. But statistically over the course of the year, they've been one of the worst passing attacks in the league. But I think his connection with the Joku, with the Mari Cooper, has been legit and immediate.

This is a game where if you're the Browns, I don't think... You couldn't get the Texans at a better time. If you can just have your defense do what it normally does against Kase, Keenem, and friends, you then would move to 10 and 5. At that point, you're pretty locked in for the playoffs, sparring an absolute disaster.

You're only one back in the division. Right.

I am not going to say it again. I said it last week. Everything makes sense that the Flacko thing comes down to Earth. Sure enough, he made those big throws at the end. He had a mistake-filled game. Why did he have a mistake-filled game? In large part, because the offensive line wasn't as good and he was hurried and forced throws. Is there a reality here where Flacko, now he had his little run and runs out? Perhaps, but the matchup is good. Like you said, they're getting a Houston team that's in a bad way physically. Maybe this just is a special run here with Flacko and he keeps it up. Don't like that he shaved his beard.

I don't get why you do that.

I don't think you change anything when you're having a little magic carpet ride moment. I just want to also say, and I don't think I formally have done this, Mark. A buddy of mine in my fantasy league texted this morning, he can't believe he's in a place where he's in a semifinal matchup. He's trying to figure out whether to start Travis Kelsie with Patrick the Homes or David and Joku with Joe Flacko. But that has been the connection of connections these last couple of weeks. I do formally have to make... David and Joku, you're my guy.

Oh.

Wow. He is officially your guy.

I think.

That- Just had to put.

That on the record. Yeah, but the getting your guy thing is typically trying to get ahead of the curve on that. But you've been talking about Nezhato- Who's been.

More ahead of the curve?

No, for you- On Dave. For a long time. I was caught in a place where I found him to be very frustrating for a long... You could see the potential, but it's all there. It's happening right now. He's been awesome. His story in general this season is one of the better stories for a player around.

Enjoy your guy. Thank you. I think...

A merry Christmas, Mark. Thank you. For this game, again.

That was... Thank you. You can watch it, too. We'll be at our homes. You can watch it.

I can't. I don't want to take this from you in any way. This is your world.

Then I'll need to do a very clean reporting job if I'm going to come in.

Because you like, you've said you like to have the game on an island where no one else is watching it. I don't want to watch it. Take that away.

From me either. I don't require it, but I do like to have my own beat, I guess.

Anything else? Sorry, Greg.

No, nothing. I've been enjoying this and I like the return of my guy. Dan's got just like, he's got all these segments in his pocket. You never know he's going to bring one out from like four years ago. By the way, this is a rematch. It's the.

Longest-i know it feels four years ago, but I think it was last year. But we've been.

Doing this a long time. It's the longest gestating revenge game in history. It's not even a revenge game, it's just a rematch. Joe Flacko starting for the Ravens, lost the game 25-13 to Kase Keenem and the Houston Texans. That was back on December 21st, the day we're typing here, 2014, back when our friend Chris Wesleyan- Nine years ago. -was letting his Kase Keenem flag fly. His freak flag. Here we are nine years later, and the two guys are starting against each other.

Keenem, back with the Texans. Chris would often utter, Let your case, Keenem, freak flag fly. He was a fan.

I think he loved Keenan came out of the gate hot. He liked to throw the ball deep down field. It wasn't always perfect, but there was something alike about him.

I did not think Keenem played great last week, and I do think that Brown's defense has now separated, and this is obviously a great matchup for them, with anyone else as the very best defense in the league. They've gotten a little healthier on the back end the last few weeks. They're so, so good. Especially against the Pads. I just trust them to win any game.

Is he going to?

No, but I will point out their favorite here by three, the money line, 148. I am picking the Browns, though.

Okay, good. Good. Mark.

It stays with me. I'm going to take Jaguars at Bucks as my late game. The Bucks are given a point there with a money line of -118. Jacksonville, I was like, Do I want to watch this game? Am I not tired and slightly fed up with the Jacksonville and the Jaguars at this point? But we will press on. We will press on. Trevor Lawrence progressing well, according to Doug Peterson, from the concussion protocol that he's nested in at the moment. No Kirsh and Kirk, Zane Jones hurt. I think they've been really affected by the loss of Kirshian, Kirk. Last week, it is such a frustrating watch because first of all, don't get in your own way. They had that drive against the Ravens that melted down inside the five. No points. They missed two field goals. No points, no points. It's like, that's the difference in this game. It's just simply go do what we'd be asking you to do and you're in a different place and we're thinking about them differently. They can't rush the passing. They're going up against the Bucks team. I know that we want to talk about Case Keener versus Joe Flacko.

Cj Bethard, that's what we get, versus Baker Mayfield is not the matchup you'd think in December would be a stirring showdown between two potential playoff teams. But Baker Mayfield.

Has been- Still isn't.

It isn't. But Baker Mayfield has been really very, very good. We saw what he did against Green Bay. He had a career high nine completion of 20-plus yards last week against the Packers, a bad Packers defense. But no other player this year has done that. He's the only one that has. His highs are high. Their own sex against winning teams, the Bucks, but they are ninth and past EPA. If they were sitting there at 27th or 28th and you have one Baker Mayfield game, like last year, but they have been productive through the year. Chris Godwin is coming off an awesome game. Mike Evans as well. The Jaguars defense has been falling apart before our eyes. If this game is in Tampa, I wonder if this is a fatal blow to the Jaguars who suddenly sit tied in the AFC South with two other teams.

Why is it only a one point?

I think people don't.

Believe in that.

-maybe they just don't... -well, they want to see what's.

Happening with Trevor Lawrence. -hope for Lawrence, but we're taping Thursday. Lawrence hasn't practiced yet, so that's a bad sign. You mentioned, yeah, Zane Jones is definitely going to miss this game, too. Yeah, defensively, the Jaguars don't have a great pass rush, which is how you bother Baker. Some of the numbers behind Baker is really interesting. I mean, he throws the ball downfield in terms of his average depth of target, deeper than anyone in the league except CJ Strat. This is a vertical offense. They found ways to get Godwin to open. I like that Poles finally stood up for himself and benched Devin White last week. It sounded to me and to people there like Devin White felt a certain way about it and essentially benched himself and decided not to be a backup. I don't know what's going to happen this week, but people that I trust, John Ledyard, who covers the Bucks, was saying his replacement, K. J. Brit, the last couple of weeks, has really been a stabilizing force in terms of not making the types of mistakes that they can throw away, because their defense isn't great in Tampa, but the offense has been good enough to beat bad teams.

I think the Jaggars right now are a bad team.

They're playing poorly, and if they don't have Lawrence, they're borderline unwatchable. I think I like the Bucks to keep rolling here. I will say the Jacks fan knows Jacksonville has been much better on the road this year. They're five and one on the road this year. They're not going to go into Tampa and blink. I just hope Lawrence plays. Come on, let's make that a good game. Let's move on. I have the next pick. It's getting dicey. It ain't so spicy. I'll grab a late game, Cardinals at Bear's. Bear's given. Merry Christmas to you. Four and a half on this one. Yeah, this is going to be... I see you like to have a nice, good focus on one of the games of the season. What is the game?

Cowboys.

Dolphins. Cowboys Dolphins. This will be just an eyeball on this game, watching it. There's some things going on that you do... I'm just being real. One eyeball. One eyeball on the game. The Bears and the Cardinals. Justin Fields is to me the biggest storyline here. How he finishes this season for the Bears really matters because it's going to affect a lot of things. It could have a butterfly effect, obviously, on the draft, I think at the end of the day when the Bear is inevitably picked first, there's a good chance they move on from him. But home Arizona, home Atlanta, at Green Bay, if he balls out, it gets very interesting. You can look at it the same way on the other side. Greg, I know you've said that you've been very confident or you're more in the camp of the Cardinals are going to stay right where they are at quarterback and build around Kyler. I'm still not convinced. I think there's still a lot of... I know they've changed leadership there, but there's a lot of bad blood with Kyler and some things that have happened in the past. I just wonder if they want a fresh start and think they could gather good resources in return.

But either way, Kyler finishing strong puts them in a good spot in.

Either situation. Right. This affects the draft so much. I was a Patriots fan watching their draft position. This is probably the Cardinal's best chance to get a win the rest of the way. That's true also of the Commanders this week who played your jets. Maybe the jets could help out the Patriots, because otherwise there could be ties and who knows? The bears could have a very high second pick if they don't win out. Iberflus needs to show a proof of concept. I think we've seen it defensively. They couldn't finish out that game against the Browns, but the combination of their linebackers and what they've been doing upfront with Montes, you would think their defense would be enough. But I thought Tyler played pretty well enough against the 49ers, too. I've liked what I've seen out of him and the idea of maybe adding, let's say they have the three-pick. A Marvin Harrison Jr, a big-time weapon to me is more attractive considering his contract and just the uncertainty at quarterback.

Yeah, I thought the interesting thing with Kyla Murray is very few quarterbacks when they're drafted are drafted specifically to be paired with their coach and their coaches system in Cliff Kingsbury. He's always like, What's he going to look like in a new offense? He's been doubly accurate on deep throws this season. They're averaging five more points per game with him. They've been a great run team, though, and I think that's the match up for me. They put up 234 last week we mentioned against the Niners, and the Bearers have the number two run defense, EPA-wise, League-wide. That's the inflection point.

All right, next game. Greg, you got two in a row here.

You didn't.

Want to go longer on that one.

Pinch me. Covered. It's the try to save our jobs bowl, Cardinals, bears, for the quarterbacks, that is. I like the bears for the quarterback. That is. I like the bears. I like the bears to play well enough down the stretch there.

A lot of people.

Trying to save their jobs. To maybe save some jobs. I am going to take the Indianapolis Colts at the Atlanta Falcons. Meaningful game here for both teams. Falcons is still very much alive. Only won back in the NFC South. As much as it feels like they're dead, all they need to do is probably win this week and they could be tied for first again or stay one back of the Bucks. They're not out of it. It's a... Oh, just let them slip away. I want them to. In fact, I noted this.

Week-float away.

Fly away, Falcons. There's only been six teams, okay? Eliminated from playoff contention so far. Six teams this entire season. That's it. Twenty-six still alive for the Super Bowl. That's a lot. The Falcons have lost to four of those six teams. Panthers, jets, Titans, Washington. I mean, give me a break, Falcons.

They beat the jets.

Maybe it's not the jets. I knew it was four. Everybody beats the jets. It's four of the six. Now I just ruined my.

Nice little... No, it was nice otherwise. They stink. You had it, though. You had the general vibe that they're not-.

When you offer these- -the.

Special.

Version, you got to- It's good not to dig too deep because everyone's like, That must be true because Greg said it. Just don't-.

I mean, it is true. They've lost four, but it was to the Commanders, the Cardinals, the Panthers.

It's pretty rough.

Who am I? You can just stop there.

That's Arthur Smith's resume right now.

Right, and the Titans are the fourth one there. I did not get.

It wrong. I wonder if the owner was on PBS or anything last night because we got that developing news out of-.

Georgia Public T.

Elevision, I believe it was? -public broadcasting. -public broadcasting. He's just doing the rounds.

It's a Taylor-off right here. I mean, he's going with Taylor Heineke to save his job, Arthur Smith. We talked about it on Wednesday. Jonathan Taylor also might be back for the Cols. I think it makes sense to trust Heineke in the biggest of spots, which is trying to save your job. But there's more to like with Indianapolis right now. They remind me of poor man's Philly in that... Well, they've got stik in, obviously, but the lines are really playing well. If your lines are playing well, your ceiling is a little higher than you realize. Their defensive line is really playing well. They protect pretty well. They run block pretty well. That might be enough to win this division. It's getting serious.

I think speaking of the two resumes for the coaches, if you're Arthur Smith, you have to explain why John O'Smith is a bigger deal than Kyle Pits. You have to explain why B. John Robinson feels like every third week is not doing what you're asking at 11 yards rushing last week. They're 26 on the ground in the EPA. The whole vision doesn't make sense. You're switching your quarterback while you're still in a playoff race. On the other side, the Colts have 12, 20-plus point games, which is tied with Miami, Baltimore, and Detroit. They've been really consistent and productive with the backup quarterback in Gartner, Menchie, where even in some games where he's been a turnover robot, they're still finding a way to produce. I think if you get Jonathan Taylor back, the vision becomes more into focus. I would rather see this Cults team in the playoffs. I know they don't do something for you, Dan, necessarily, but they're going to be the same team in the playoffs, I think, too. I just could trust them to go. I thought last week they dropped an A-bomb.

Yeah, but they're the ultimate. We know they're just there for around.

The playoff team. But that's half the playoff field.

Right now. That's probably any team in the AFC South, but there is a world where Lawrence gets healthy and they just find.

Their best. I don't agree with your playoff take, Mark, about there should be less playoff teams. Well, not every team. But you can't really go deep on that take and then be like, Oh, the Cults, we need the Cults.

I think the Colts offer hope for the future. I really do. I think- Oh.

I didn't say that.

That's not the case. But I also think they've been... I don't know. I feel like I've picked them a number of these weeks and they're watchable. I think Garner, Menchie, when he's on and it's their defense, too. I just think they're a balanced, interesting roster.

I would take the Colts in this game, but the way the NFL works and the money line is actually minus one or two for the Falcons. The Colts are slight underdogs. The way the NFL goes this year, the Falcons will actually win it just to muck it up and keep it all mucky.

Super mucky. I think you had it right, Greg, with Arthur Smith. He showed his hand. By going back again to Heineke. He's basically throwing up his hands and be like, I got it wrong? Yeah. Now I'm just trying to save my job. I put my entire head coaching career potentially on this Ritter kid, and I bet big and lost, and now I need a hell marry from a career backup in Heineke. Could have signed Lamar to that offer sheet. But Desmond Ritter was really good those last three weeks. He threw for 201 yards.

He was so insistent on not doing that. An excellent runner back. We're good.

We have Desmond Ritter. All right, let's take a break and finish this out. All right, welcome back. Thanks back to you, Greg.

Well, there's only two games, unless I'm mistaken, and one of them involves the jets, which means I'm taking the Packers, and I don't want to watch the jets anyways. I'd rather watch this game. Packers, Minus 5.

I'm giving out Christmas gifts all over.

The place today. There are pretty games, by the way. I'm surprised to see you're skipping over your precious little Seahawks.

I missed that. My bad.

You turned in your card already. I'm sorry.

Yeah, I'll just stick with Packers minus five at Panthers, Money Lines minus 230. I don't know. I'm at the point with this Packers defense where I feel like anything is possible in a bad way like that even this game, where I'll definitely pick the Packers to win, but I don't even know anymore. Their 29th in defensive DVO just feels like they know they don't have answers and they're not able to adjust. Now, you shouldn't need to adjust much when you're playing the Carolina Panthers, but the Packers also now have no margin for error. They're really not dead here at six and eight. They have to win out. They're a wounded animal. They almost have to go in through the systems. They're 20 % to make the playoffs, but if they won out, they're more likely than not to make the playoffs. They're at Carolina, at Minnesota, that's a big one, and then home for bears. I think it'd be tough for this team to win three straight right now, but they're capable enough. To me, Jordan Love is symbolic of the team in general, which is, man, there's a lot of good stuff to like.

You saw that last week. A lot of really special throws, but he also was a little erratic last week. A lot of misthrows, too. Just five or six where you're just like, Wow, I don't know if he's ever going to be misc or accurate. With a defense this bad, you need him to just be next level.

Yeah, like I said, that was one of the worst defensive efforts you'll see by a team all year last week in that loss for Green Bay. This is the other game I was looking at is a lock. You can lock against the Panthers who already got now that little gift of a second win last week against Atlanta. They're probably ready to pack things up at this point, but they're also not playing for DraftPick, so there's nothing, there's no tanking going on here. They're trying to win this game. I think the Packers are the, more than any other team, are the epitome of why this season has been very difficult to figure out in a lot of ways. A young team that struggles early on figures it out, and they're playing inspired, confident football, and then that just dissolves.

Two eggs in a row.

Two eggs in a row at the most critical juncture of the season here in December. Now you just don't know what to make of them. While I wanted Mark to lock up the pack here, it's like, how can I trust anything about them after their last.

Two weeks? Yeah, I think that's it. If youif you want to win a lock, don't take a team where I think there's a lot to like on offense, but they've been one of the worst defenses around over the last five games, giving up 400 yards per contest. That's the most in the NFL. They've been beaten up on the ground. I have a request for the Panthers because we're not going to learn a whole lot more about Bryce Young between now and the end of the season. He is who he is. Maybe next year will be better. That's what you'd hope. But why not run the ball 44 times and just keep Green Bay off the field? Tubaube has been pretty good on the ground. They've had a couple of moments where it was like, even back when Frank Reich was there was like, there was these drives where they did, they looked like last year's Panthers on the ground, just as an experiment, just go run the ball 44 times and see what happens. It can't be.

Any worse. I mean, yeah, go get a win, Carolina, and put the Patriots in the mix for number one. Right now, their strength of schedule, which is the time breaker, is exactly tied, which means it's going to change. But if for some reason that happened by the end of the season, they would actually flip a coin to decide who gets the number one pick. That would be an exciting coin flip.

I mean, the Packers don't want to help the.

Bears, though. It won't happen. That's true.

That's interesting. Packers could be setting the bears up with the number one draft pick or helping.

By the.

Way, this is- That's sassy. Hey, Bryce Young had his highest PFF grade of the season last week. It was only 77.

He made some throws on that.

Last drive. That last drive was.

Pretty crazy. Which is a good game. A nice 77 grade from them is actually quite good. Who knows? Maybe he'll play his.

Best down the stretch. I think you're referring to the, and you got to be careful about following this person's offensive game planning, but there was a Gino Smith, Lex Ryan, or a Monday Night Football game against the Dolphins, I want to say about eight or nine years ago, where the jets ran the ball 50 times in the game. Gino had eight pass attempts with two minutes to play. They lost that game, by the way. But I would think if you're taking the ball out of the hands of the number one overall pick that often, and that is quite an indictment. I say let the kid throw it against the Green Bay defense. Let's go. Give him another... He needs something going into this offseason.

But see, that's what they'd probably be thinking. Of course, the Panthers want to showcase their quarterback who will look good and make them look good going to the offseason. But it's like, we want to win the game, flip it around and run it 44 times, and they use a bunch of wild cat and old school 1920s.

It's an interim head coach. So maybe.

He's-he's a special teams guy, Chris Taylor. All right. I have a dog in the race here.

Is the Packers would hurt the bears. I guess the loss wouldn't be the worst thing.

I mean, he has a dog in the race. It's the Panthers, right?

He's not going to be named head coach. I can never.

Know.

What he did. I will wager my entire physical body on that.

Life is short. He might only have this one chance. Let's have some fun. Let's win some game. He can have fun.

This week. If you think he's in the race.

To be in. Who would take your body, by the way, if you were to lose this paper, got the interim ripped up? The NFL. Where would we.

Send it? The NFL would just take it and secret it away. They already have it. They already basically own it.

They got you, bro. You're in the machine, bro.

All right, I will grab Washington at New York Jets. This is a dead-butt game. Nothing really on either side. I will point out that some of the rhetoric around Rogers this week has gotten on my nerves because it's already been such a lost, frustrating year. He's catching a lot of strays. I'm not defending Rogers because he is annoying and how he keeps going on McAfee, which is a paid engagement and just talking all the time. Then that gets aggregated and he becomes a story of what he should be so far out the rear view mirror. Of course, he's not going to play. He's not cleared, so we're not seeing that. I saw some pieces out there that this is one of the most selfish things I've ever seen, like Aaron Rogers gave hope and led to the jets on some level failing to get a backup quarterback because he promised he would be back. Let me tell you something about Aaron Rogers or about the jets, really. If you think the jets messed up because of Aaron Rogers saying he thought he would be back, no, you're giving the jets too much credit. The jets messed up because the jets have no idea how to evaluate the quarterback position or their roster, and they thought Zach Wilson was going to be okay.

That's why that happened. It's not because they thought, Oh, Aaron will be back. That's why we're not going to go get, I don't know, insert Huber, Joshua Dobbs here, had nothing to do with that. The other thing is he was getting killed for because they moved him to the active or they moved him off IR and it led to a fullback getting taken off the roster. How selfish. Someone called him a pig for that. It's like, no, everybody relax. I get it. That fullback was moved to the practice squad. He gets invested, he gets his salary, and nothing changes for him. He wasn't going to play anyway.

What do you mean? He doesn't get the game checks, though.

It doesn't change how much money he makes. I saw that reported this morning.

I just think it's been a rough season and he's a big target, and I've gotten on Rogers a ton. But to paint these two things as signs of him being a bad dude, I'm not really about it. Whatever they said about Aaron Rogers on TV is a lie.

I.

Wouldn't go that far.

But-the Hard Knocks experiment, experienced, changed how I felt about Rogers. I think you're stuck in a situation where you're in a very frustrating campaign. There's a lot being said about you. Other players would just go away. But when you're doing these paid media things week after week, it's inevitable that you're going to get caught in the crosshairs of some of this. I don't know. I think the biggest thing is he's saying, Next year won't be my last year. Yes, that is. That I'm going to come back and play, and I want to get at least the jets the two years I told him I'd give them. That was the news for me.

Yeah, but I think in terms of reporting throughout, the media also didn't need to make it out to be as probable as they made it seem and as heroic. I can't believe he's doing this. Whereas I've been saying on the show all along, I never believed that it would happen because it just, why would you? It never happened. -right, it's never happened. Rogers said as much this week. He said, I'm not just going.

To happen.

He tried. He tried. Great.

I don't think that was untrue. I think he wanted to do it. He's a man who thinks very highly of himself and sees himself as different than others. He couldn't.

Because it's never been done. People were just like, This is so amazing that he even got that close. Why do you know how close it got? Maybe it got exactly the same amount of closest.

It always gets. My point is I don't think that affected Jet's strategy at the quarterback position. I just don't. I think they just were lost in the woods in general.

Quickly, the jets are favored in this game.

What? I mean, that's how bad Washington- Well, the.

Trevor Simeon- Well, Washington has been.

Terrible the last five weeks. I get it. They are below them in DVOA, too.

What? Simeon is the two worst quarterbacks that we've seen in the league this year. Tell me I'm wrong. Tim Boyle and Trevor Simeon. Simeon has been absolutely lost. I know that Washington Commanders have a horrific defense. The jets will not score more than 10 points this week.

They just won't. They are minus 162. I think I'm going to have to take the there. -or is it an.

Upset there. Seasons that need to end.

Yes. All right, last pick, Mark.

All right, by default, I will take the Seahawks to Titan. Seahawks giving up two and a half points, minus 135 money line for Seattle. Gino Smith, just about an hour ago, announced that he could have actually played Monday night. He believes he could have, and it was rather non-plused when Pete Carroll let him know that wasn't going to happen. He's practicing. He's full-going practice, so I think no controversy there. Drew Lock, one of the better in-game stories we've seen all year. I think that was a pretty great victory for Seattle to go do what they did. But no question, Gino, comes back. We don't know about right now, as of today, Ryan Tana Hill took first team rep practices. That also was just a couple hours ago for Tennessee. I think that's trending towards a Gino-Tana Hill matchup. We'll see, there's a lot of injuries for both of these teams here.

I think if I -It was an old AFC-Easter clash back in the old days.

Oh, you're right.

Well, wait. It's awesome. Eight or nine years later. Little Tana Hill, Gina. Sure. Maybe.

Yeah, the classic days of football, I think, is what you'd want to call that. You can run on Seattle. That's the one thing I'd say. The Tennessee, it's not been the greatest Derrick Henry season of all times, but that's your opportunity in this game. Titans have been a much different team home. There's a chance here. But the one thing that I find with Seattle that's been hopeful is that a couple of months ago, I was wondering what was happening with Jackson, Smith, and Jigbo, who I thought was the most sure-fire guy to come in and produce, and he was having an up and down year. He's now only three catches less than D. K. Metcalfe, which says something about the D. K. Metcalfe experience as well. But they're the only team in the league with three guys with 50-plus catches. I liked that for them.

The first time these two teams, these two quarterbacks faced each other was in a game that Gino Sims split reps with Matt Sims, someone I forgot ever took snaps at quarterback. Matt Sims. In the NFL, yes. Yikes. Another of the...

Oh, it's U.

T. Guy, right? Sims dynasty. That was Chris Sims. I don't know where Matt came from. I assume he was related. Who knows? Pete Carroll did make it clear Gino is the starter, if healthy, and I think it was one of those where it was like, Gino would have been playing through an injury.

What? It was like the Aussie conseco of the Sims fan.

I guess so. I forgot.

He was- He looks a lot like Chris. I'm sure he's related. They look a lot like none of them.

Oh, yeah, they're related.

He was a Jets quarterback for a.

Number of years. I believe Gino was benched in that game for Matt Sims. Tough. 10 years ago. Now he's back. He is going to be the starter. Pete Carroll making some bold decisions. I think he basically benched Jamal Adams. Jamal Adams wasn't even there at the game, we found out, I think, because even though Adams was on the injury report, I think they were doing that to spare his feelings a little bit. They also benched Rick Woolen, which was interesting. I thought the Gino-Locke thing, how the two of them have handled it together is enviable. That's what you want out of your quarterbacks. We have Drew Lock, actually, after the game, giving Gino some love.

I.

Appreciate him. More than words can describe. Talking to me before that.

Two-minute, you're.

The best player on this field. You're going to lead us down this field right now. Go get.

It done. Just things like that, man.

It's really cool.

Definitely.

Cool. This is a minute and 40-second clip there, but it is fun.

More than words can describe, then I will go to use words to describe it.

Greg and Drew have said it all. I can't say anything else.

The little symbols, the little back and forth.

Gino was like, I thought one thing about Gino in that game was like, absolutely on fire.

Pumping him up. The way they talk about each other, it's not a-I saw.

Him looking for the camera, and then when he saw the camera, he was like, You could do it, man. You got this right here. I was like, Okay, I see what happened. That's actually not true.

People are killing. This is a great situation for Greg, especially that island game. I don't even check the stuff anymore for the most part. People are killing Dan and I for not being sunshiny enough about the Seahawks win. I was like, all I remember was-What are.

You talking about? You got to stop worrying about these people.

I'm not worried about people. I just find incredible. We couldn't have been more positive.

Are you talking about the subreddit again, Mark? No, no, no. Don't attribute to that-Specifically Twitter. -that place. Specifically Twitter. That place.

Specifically Twitter. I didn't get anything on Twitter. I did, and I was like, I think it's because I said I don't like this. I went down that seventh playoff thing where it's like, Don't stop trying to tell me this and that. If they make the playoff, it's good for them. Who cares about it?

They got some fun. They got some fun. On offense, and this is a good match up for it, and I know we can get out of here. I do like them to win this game. Although, Tana Hill worries me that he might be an upgrade there from Will Levis. The CX are favored by two and a half money lines minus 1.35..

We.

Mentioned that. Oh, my bad.

You can hammer it home if you want.

The offensive pieces are pretty exciting for whoever is playing quarterback at Seattle because Ken Walker, I feel like, is going to another level. If you need a running back to just make something out of nothing, which is often the case, he could do it. This is a tough defense to run against, but he was special on Monday night. Really, to me, was the number one reason they won that game. I think Charbonneil, too. Yeah, he's a great backup. It's a great tandem.

All right, that is week 16. We said, it's Thursday. It's the round the NFL triple header. You got this episode, you got an NFL-plus. The Dreamatorium is open for business. Mark and This week, a two-hander. Yeah, well- What do you got in store on the old Dreamatory?

Am I supposed to say or is meant to be a surprise? Actually, tease it out. We've got a little bit of Detroit Lions storytelling and something on Baker Mayfield.

I like it.

What about you?

I'm going to talk a little Julec. We're going to talk a little JuLoc. We're going to talk a little Robeson in the booth.

I like this tease.

Also, hip hop Santa. Also, we will have the Thursday Night Football recap, so check that out. All right, till then. You know what you got to do. Heave the call.