The Around the NFL podcast. It's already on the 2024 Cowboys Bandwagon. From the Chris Wesling podcast studio, It's Around the NFL. My name is Dan Hanses, joined by heroes, Greg Rosenthal and Mark Sesler. And it is here. The best football weekend of the year, divisional round, layoffs. Eight teams remain. That means only eight teams were. One of them is going to hoist that Lambo.

I keep hearing that it's the best football weekend, and I don't disagree in terms of the staging. But there are also 24 fan bases whose teams have been turned into dust. It's not always... You have to become just agnostic and be like, I'm just enjoying the sport at this point. I shipped into that mode. I No problem.

I think you could probably relate to this, but I root for a bad team, historically, always. That's true. I'm used to checking out emotionally on the team, my team aspect. As a football fan, by this time, even if it was a good season and you got picked off at the end of the regular season or earlier in the playoffs, I could look at these games and be like, We're not going to get pound for pound a better week of games. Now, the Championship Sunday, which is next week, is great, too, Greggy. But this one, you get more variety, more spice. You get an underdog or two, which we certainly have here, and it's just going to be a lot of fun.

To Mark's point, I think week one is a close second. If I had to choose, I do love me some week one. That's great, too. It's been so long of a buildup, but there is something where everyone's just watching the same game. It doesn't feel weird for us, too. We're home on Saturdays just watching one game. I was like, Man, there's a lot of commercial breaks. I'm enjoying it because every play, you're rethinking it, and in a different way than you would in the regular season. But I hope this one delivers. It's a lot of pressure. Seasons, sometimes the packer season is so nice because there was no expectations. We weren't expecting much. I hope we don't put too much expectations on this weekend after all those blowouts last week.

Yeah, here's a- These spreads are big.

Yeah, here's a good- It's a big spread weekend.

They are large.

Good data point here. Reached out to the research team. What a team. A person by the name of Cole Noble, which is a hell of name. Let's start there. Quickly responded.

It could be a pen name, but that's fine.

I had asked since division realignment for the research team? Yeah, I like that.

He adopted a new name for the researcher.

Since division realignment in 2002, how often, This is my exact email. Okay. Sent by verbal text on phone as I was driving in. Hey there, period. Could you tell me, since division realignment in 2002, How often both number one seeds made it out of the divisional round? Then I had to do an edx. Originally, I had a period, and I was like, No, let me give the question mark. On the other side, comma, how many years did both get picked off in their first playoff game? Question mark. Thanks, Slammer. Need it. Shows a playful, Hey, we're all in this together, to put that exclamation point at the end.

A team, you're a larger team.

Oh, we're talking football. Hey, Dan. Since the division realignment in 2002, number one seeds are 29 13 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Of those 21 seasons, there have only been 11 seasons in which both number one seeds won their divisional round matchup. 22, which is last year. Interesting. Which means two years in a row. Come on now. 20, 18, 17, 15, 14, 13, 9, 4, 3, and 2. Of those 21 seasons, there have only been three seasons in which both number one seeds lost in the divisional round. Does anybody know when that happened? It was recently.

So the Ravens lost recently.

The Titans got picked up by the Bangles, and the packers lost to the Niners in 2021. In 2010, the Falcons lost to the Packers. That was the Rodgers gets hot. That's what I was going to say. Andwins the Super Bowl.

I was trying to think, who was the one seed that year? Was it the Patriots versus the Jets?

The best football moment of my life. Up in Foxborough, that was 2010. In 2008, the Titans again. Come on, tight tunes. Come on. Even when you have a powerhouse team, this happens to you?

But Kerry Collins was the quarterback, the most random one seed until the next time the Titans had the one.

They were like 13 and 0 or 10 and 0. Anyway, the Titans lost to the Ravens and the Giants lost to the Igles. So great job by Cole Cole.

We're all in this together. Did you verbalize an email that said, Thank you, Cole, for your help. I just saw it.

I'm going to do it right now.

You got to write them back and say, Cole.

It's crazy. The packers were the one seed two years ago. That team that lost in San Francisco. That was not a great team.

Aaron Rodgers has never beaten the Niners.

Cole Nobles is probably a man, right?

We are still recording, by the way.

Yes, I would think Cole would be a... I would think. I don't know. Who knows?

I was going to put you're the man. I'm going to put you're the best.

That's better.

All right, done. All right, so we're going to get to the games right now, and we got a little football news to get to. We'll do that as part of halftime, but let's get going and let's start. Oh, Marky Mark, Mark, Mark. Obviously, the Houston Texans Ravens are a underdog this week. They're one of the heavy underdogs. There are two teams. Man, two teams getting nine and a half points of wood, and they're one of them against the Ravens in Baltimore. I feel like the Ravens haven't played in about two months, and it feels like that because they rested starters, then had to buy. Last time the Ravens did that, things went sideways for them. But the idea here, Greg, is that this is a different Ravens team, a better Ravens team than that 2019 team that got picked I don't even know if that's true, but that's what they're telling themselves. The Ravens get a Texans team, obviously, that is feeling very confident about themselves despite being a middling operation for most of the season. They have a young quarterback in C. J. Stroud that hasn't believe in and a head coach in D'Amico Reines that just shut down the Cleveland Browns in a big spot.

I think this Ravens team is unquestionably better because they're more diversified offensively. The numbers would say they're still an elite running team, one of the best in the league, and the Texans have a run defense that could maybe slow them down. But the short passing game, the long passing game, and then especially compared to 2019, the defense, which now that the Browns have taken a dirt nap, is certainly the best defense in the league. I think the most consistent over the course of the season, too. That's where I start is just we've seen Mike McDonald, and I think he's going to get hired the defensive coordinator of the Ravens in this cycle because what he's done this year that basically no one else has been to do is stop Shana Hand tree offenses, which is, to me, the thing that is the most valuable thing you can do as a defense is slow down this offense that has basically taken over the league and has been a quarterback cheat code. They did it against the Dolphins in a big spot just a few weeks ago. They did it against the 49ers in a big spot about a month ago, and now they're going to do it, I believe, against C.

J. Stroud in this Texans defense, and they do it with man coverage, but they mix it up. Stroud has struggled sometimes against man coverage, and they do it by mixing things up in terms of what they're going to do after the snap. So Stroud has been very good mentally all season, reading the coverage, getting through his reads. This will be a It was a new test for him. He faced it in week one. He struggled. He's a much different quarterback now. But to me, this is a much bigger step up in class for the Texans' offense, really, than it is for the Texans' defense.

Yeah, I think that week one game is deep ancient mythology at this point. I mean, it's like the Texans were a completely different team. The Ravens were at that point still figuring out who they were, too. It was a week ago we were saying, Ken Stroud, solve this Browns offense or Browns defense. That we were touting for good reason. Now it comes again, it's the Ravens. The Ravens, they are a different team from the team that lost a couple of years ago in the playoffs because-Well, we'll find out. Well, I would say this, though, just coming in, at least, statistically, They are fourth in average points per game. They are first in points allowed, and that's a problem for Stroud. They are the number one rushing team in the league. All of those metrics basically have not been achieved by one team since the bears of 1985. How about that? I think a lot of it is because it's always like- That is different. It is Lamar Jackson, and it's the offense, and their offense is heated up. But this defense against C. J. Stroud, who last week created the highest passer rating in a wild card round by a player in his first playoff game in NFL history.

Stroud is the real deal. It's just like, you've taken away two of their top four pass catchers, but it doesn't matter. Nico Collins is heated up. I really want to see what this Ravens defense, second in EPA against the pass, can do to solve Stroud. Because I think Stroud, if you get last week's version, this to me is a dangerous... The way I felt when the Browns were facing the Texans was like, that the last team I wanted to deal with because the Texans, like the packers, have nothing to lose. I think there is this mounting pressure, no matter what anyone says on the Ravens, on Lamar Jackson, because even if you're an MVP this year, in a year, I think there really is no true MVP in the sense that we would normally look at that award. There is mounting pressure on Lamar Jackson to win this playoff game. If you lose this, the narrative on you is pretty cemented.

Yes. Is that cemented at age 27? Well, it's cemented till next time.

It's cemented as it is for Dak Prescott right now. It doesn't mean it can't be It'd be cemented like it was for Peyton Manning at age 27. Sure. He eventually changed that as well. But you can't change any reputation or bad history around your game in the playoffs until you actually have that big performance. He has not been a good, historically, not only four playoff starts, but he's one in three of those starts. The numbers have not been good. Jackson, yeah, just like there's a house of ghosts around Dallas. I don't think it's that way around Lamar. If it happened this weekend where he has a bad game and they get bounced in the first round, this is going to be something that really falls.

And Harbaugh, for that matter, they have not been back to a conference championship. But Harbaugh has got a chip.

He's got the pelt on the wall.

Just saying they've had a lot of playoff losses since 11 years ago.

Absolutely. As far as... I have a lot of respect for, obviously, the Ravens and how they go about their business and how they prepare for teams and make teams look bad. They've had not just a couple of weeks here to get healthy, but also to study these Texans. You watch it. We're just watching that, and you could check this out, the show on the fast channels. You could look at the highlights, and it's just like, did the Browns even prepare for this game? The amount of wide open looks and the misdirection that left the Browns completely spinning on their heels. I just don't see the Baltimore Ravens offering up that type of effort and performance. C. J. Stroud, then you get to the big question, Greg. Stroud, who is absolutely be different. He's a different type of rookie quarterback. But on this stage, if you start to cook him up a little bit and confuse him, does he start forcing the ball like young quarterbacks do and make the mistakes that turn this game into 24/7 in the third quarter?

He's been so careful with the ball all year. He's the chance that they have that he beats perfect coverage, that he just has an electric game, that he's the best quarterback on the field. That's possible, which is crazy. Asking so much for a rookie.

For a 22-year-old.

The reason why I'm not as worried about as the Ravens is like, they've been in those games. They've been behind, they've been ahead, they've blown leads and then had to hold onto it. They've blown leads completely, though. But there's so many different ways that they can win, whether it's offense or defense. And I think they'll have to keep up the the Texans in this game. They haven't had a run game really all year. There's no reason to think it's going to start now. Marlon Humphrey has been out of practice. That's the one guy that hasn't come back to practice. So we'll see what his final injury designation is. But obviously, that's a big one, their best cornerback. But I look at when Houston's on defense and I look at those linebackers, and I just think they're going to get picked on in this one. Mark Andrews is practicing again. Suddenly, you're going to have to deal with Andrews and likely They have a way of getting flowers matched up sometimes over the middle of the field on these safeties and everything. And these Texans linebackers, they're a great run defense, whether it's... Who is it?

Perimen, whoever's out there, 2-0, 2-0. There will be sometimes where they're in pass coverage, and they're just bad. They're bad. I just feel like that's a spot where if the Ravens can't run the ball, and I could see this being it's like a three-point game in the third quarter. That's a lot of Ravens games are like that. But I think the passing game is where the Ravens end up having too many weapons. Even Rashaad Bateman coming off his best game of the year, I think, was significant in that week 17 game against the Dolphins.

I think you need the wideouts for Baltimore to be at their best. It on Zee flowers to not have a typical rookie playoff game where maybe you banish a little bit. Odile Beckham. He is heated up and there's hope to think that can happen. But like the Nelson Aguilor, Rashaad Bateman, these guys need to have a game in this thing. I mean, the Ravens are so tight on defense that they're 13 and one when they've scored at least 20 points. I do think that there's a road for them to really handle the Texans if they can coax them into mistakes, but that has just not been C. J. Stroud. Five interceptions all year. The one thing about the Texans defense, which I think gets overlooked a little bit, is that they've only allowed over 125 yards rushing once all year, and it was to the Colts. They're a pretty good rush defense. If you can put Lamar into a situation where he has to pass and has to rely on his pass catchers, that's where maybe mistakes come. But he has got seven touch downs and zero picks over the last two routes that Baltimore has enacted on the Dolphins and the Niners.

This is the best version of the Ravens, and they're very dangerous.

Like I said at the top of the show, it looks like 11 out of 22 years, one of the number one seeds gets picked off.

That's crazy.

For everyone that's making their game picks going into this weekend, keep that in mind because you're just going to be attempted to just obviously circle the Ravens, circle the Niners, and then figure out the other two games.

Although, historically, I suspect two nine and a half point spreads is higher than average. Just putting that out there, too. By the numbers-You should hit up Cole Noble on that. Yeah, that would be a lot. But these numbers are made by essentially just algorithms. Those algorithms spit out that the Ravens and the 49ers are two of the strongest, even though the records aren't crazy. But the numbers would say they're the two of the very strongest one seeds we've had in a long time.

Yeah. Although I would say if you look at the data and we don't have it, unfortunately, so we're up against the wall with the conversation. But I would show a lot of times it's probably around six at least once you have the number one seat involved. Now, with that said, I do believe in the Ravens. I do think they will be the team that I feel most confident in this weekend, and it's not a shot against the Texans or Mark Sesler directly. But the Ravens, I believe, Mark, are going to handle their business in a way they didn't the last time they were in this spot. So I'm going to lock up the Baltimore Ravens.

You set us up there. I thought you were...

As the Zuzzer digs out of his own hole, I think I'm seven and I've won in the last eight weeks in the pick.

I saw a figure from our Lock It Up account on Twitter that no one has ever recorded less than 10 wins in the lock competition. Oh, shoot.

Where are we at right now?

I sit at nine. You'd think I'm going to go-Oh, you're good. I'm going to go do the safe thing and get to 10. I don't care because I think that's an exciting record to set if I were to fail, too. But I'm going to do what I did last week because I think the Texans have a little bit of magic that no one sees I'm sitting at nine and 10. Nobody in America cares about my lock score. I'm going at you in a lock competition. It's going to be very fitting. I'm locking up the Texans, baby.

Where after this weekend, Mark's record is 9, 11. Can I just... I know what you're doing now.

You're 11 and 8. He is what? Nine and 10.

I'll get to 10 wins so that I don't have that thing maybe, but I'm going to get it this week.

It'd be harder the next two weeks to pick it wrong. This week, there's some big spreads. You're more likely to pick it.

You know what Kaiser Soze is doing over here, by the way? I got you all figured out, Cecil.

What? I I think this is exciting if I were to be not- Same thing with Greggy with the sandwich props where he doesn't like where he is in the standing, so he shifts into, Now I'm just going to be a fully unpredictable guy, and my record is going to be really bad because I always go with crazy pics, and then it mitigates that you've struggled in the standings because I'm just wild pics guy.

I'm wild pigs guy.

In fairness to Mark, he's only doing this after he's clinched last place anyway. Waka Waka. We've already accepted that he's going to be last place.

I have said for months now that the Texans-Honk, honk. Well, no, I'm actually I said the Texans would win two playoff games for a long time now. So I'm standing behind that.

I respect that. I respect the hell. I thought you said they were going to get to the second round.

No, I said they would win. I said they could, but I'm now saying they will.

This is the second straight week where the lock, I think I was going to go with, I'm now not going to because you guys had a lock off. It just seems like fun to be a part of it.

I'm quietly, by the way, looking to... Because the standings mean a lot to me, #beatgreg in the second half now. That's what I'm going to do. If that motivates you in any way, I could care.

He's going to say it doesn't.

He's going to say, I don't care about anything. How did he know I want to beat him?

You are five games back. This competition has been so boring that it's already locked over. Last week, I've already picked it up since it doesn't make it any different.

No one is looking at first, second half splits in the law competition. I am.

But here is because I know you, too. Greg's mania. Now that he knows I'm tracking it, he needs it.

In this case, You couldn't be more wrong.

Nope, I'm right.

This is as if the Ravens have already won their Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, and then they have to go on a barnstorming tour that means absolutely nothing. Can you imagine how anticlimate it is to continue to play after you've clinched it with five weeks to go? You were eliminated in week 16.

That's a disgrace. Give me that second half chip.

I think you need to go to one of these... I don't know if they still have these stores. They make the trophies, right? Kids and stuff. Get a second half of the season trophy that you can have on your desk.

It's yours.

Someone out there make it for Dan.

I might please send me. Well, I got to win it first. I got to win it. You will win it.

You've won it. But you're not going to-I'm up a game on Greg right now in the second half.

Why am I voting for you when I've just gone? I hope people care about Jimmy Johnson versus Michael Strahan's gamepicks as much as they seem to care about ours. We're assuming that.

I have never once cared about those things when we watch them. We're making an assumption that people care about us doing that. It always worries me.

It keeps you up at night, I'm It's the passion in which the conversation happens. That's what it's about.

Yeah.

You could have a big wooden... You should also make it a 6-foot-tall trophy that you put in your-Well, I'm not going to make it.

If someone makes me, I won the second half, 2023-2024 trophy.

There is a pathway to you making it.

You've won it already.

You're ordering it.

What do you mean, I won it already?

I'm just saying you've won.I.

Need to defeat you.

Just make it Week sixth or whatever it is. No, because I see what you're doing.

I see what you're doing. They I'm trying to minimize my effort here. What I'm trying to do is beat you in the second half of the season.

Got it.

See, and you're trying to belittle me, and it's not successful because I will defeat you the way I must, which is from week nine on.

So behind the glass, they made a grave error before the show. They told us that the fast channel can only hold an hour and 15 minutes of content. Keep the fat, cut the fat. And we've gone on about 25 minutes about this.

All right, let's get back on track. And by the way, this is the Joe Buck, Troy Akeman Lisa Salter's Laura Rutledge team. We got a foursome here. I was looking forward to because, by the way, the Ravens have now activated Dalvin Cook to the active roster, and they waved Melvin Gordon. I thought I was hoping because I've been predicting that Dalvin Cook will have a big playoff game to make Jets fans feel bad. I was hoping it was going to be Romo going, Jim, it looks like he's got some gas in the tank. But it's Buck and I don't know if we're going to get the same enthusiasm about a big Cook game. Not in the fun way.

Greg's mad about the-No. No, I don't perceive Dalvin Cook having much of a role. Why would he? Well, he's active.

What if he gets hot? You go with the hot hand.

You're also perceiving him to suddenly be a fresh, young, great running back just because he left the Jets. The evidence that we've seen physically-I Justin.

I would take my chances, who knows with this group, but that he does not finish in the top two or even three in rushing yards on the Baltimore Ravens. I think I would take Justice Hill, Lamar Jackson, and Gus Edwards over.

I guess we'll have to see. We'll have to see. Anything else on this game?

I just think it's Domingo Ryan's last chance to show how special he is because Derek Barnet, Desmond King, these guys were on other teams very recently, and then he brings them into the Texans, and they're really productive. To me, that's the number one thing you can show as a coach that you take other guys who weren't productive for their teams, and you immediately put them into your system, and they're productive. I do think defensively with Will Anderson and Grannard. If Grannard is healthy and Barnett has been playing well, that's maybe one spot that tackles for the Baltimore Ravens haven't been great. I'm with you, Dan. This is the game I'm most confident in. Lock it up if you feel that way. That seems boring.

I want to lock against both of you.

Let's But I've been doing it all year with the Ravens. I think it could be close, and then they just pull away. By the way, the Ravens are minus 425 in this game.

I'm taking the points, too. I think this is a double-digit win for both.

I would, too, if I had to choose. Really?

The Texans are allowing about 20 points a game all year long. That would mean they don't...

They were playing in the AFC South. I don't know. I like the Browns, but didn't love them. Now they're in the big league. That's all. Who knows? Maybe they're one of those magic carpet ride teams. In that case, Mark, you will be a happy man come Sunday night. Let's get to the second game on Saturday, the other big underdog affair. It's the Green Bay Packers who just horrified everyone in North Texas by slaughtering the Cowboys at Jera World. They're The reward now is to go from Jera World up to the big Bell Bottom to face the Niners, also nine and a half points. Isn't it crazy? The symmetry between the Texans and packers.

Absolutely.

Even to a yard and to a point on the passer rating and just the counting stats of what Stroud did and what Love did last week to where the teams are record-wise, to even the spread against the number one seat, the following point, exactly nine and a half. It is the Spider-Man, two Spider-Man meme thing going on here. Will this be another game, Mark, that, like you say, you think the Texans went outright and shocked the world in Baltimore? You give the packers the same shot in Santa Clara.

This, to me, is a concerning matchup because I think the focus, if you look at it, is the Joe Berry defense. I mean, good defenses have not been able to stop the multi-layered weaponry of the Niners, and It's guys like Devandre Campbell, Quay Walker, trying to stop Christian McAfree. This feels to me like a Christian McAfree outburst. You base it around that, and then you go to town from there. I don't love the spread because I do I think that if you just look at Jordan Love over the back half of the season, has been incredible. He's led the NFL with 19 offensive touch downs on third and fourth down in this season, down the stretch. He's really only thrown like, pics on downfield throws. He's been really efficient on shorter throws. He's got the second most touch downs in the league. I just see an offense in Green Bay that has grown up. Even when you have like, Matthew on the Super Bowl Rams, it took them half a season to really find out who they were. For everyone else to warm up around Matthew Stafford, this is a more incredible story to me because it's incredibly young, untested players who are becoming...

They've got a star quarterback and really incredible weapons. Aaron Rodgers has to be watching this from afar and saying, Where was this when I was here? Aaron Rodgers, 0-3 against the Niners in the playoffs as a Green Bay quarterback. Jordan Love, I think, has a better shot to inflict problems to the the Niners defense than Aaron Rodgers did in the past. Even when they were at home in freezing temperatures and that Green Bay offense couldn't do a single thing, this is a completely different team. I see a shootout potentially. I don't like this nine and a half points thing. But to your question, Dan, the Niners, they're not going to crumble here. I think this team knows its own playoff history, and they seem completely unified and ready to go to battle.

Yeah, I think no matter how well you think Jordan Love is playing, he's probably playing better. Right now, he's arguably the best quarterback in the league. That's the level he's playing at because some of those shutdown passes, usually, I think, shutdown passes are a little overrated because it's a function of a team, and you get down there, are you a team that runs on the goal line, or are you a team that passes? But these shutdown passes, including two of them last week, they're incredible dimes. The level of difficulty on these throws is just okay. I'm not going to go as far as you said, Mark, that he's more dangerous than peak Aaron Rodgers, although those teams for the packers obviously didn't play well in the playoffs, and we didn't see that coming necessarily.

I'd say January. That's totally fair.

But I would say this is a different Niners defense. I don't think it's as good as 2019. I know the numbers are overall pretty good. You can run against them. The way that Aaron Jones has been playing lately and the way this offensive line has been protecting Jordan Love is a huge part of why Jordan Love has been so good. He's been in favorable situations. The play actions, obviously, working really well. His numbers are just crazy. Even though the players are good, I think it's a tough matchup for the 49ers defense in a way that, yes, maybe it can be a shootout. Hopefully, you get the ball first like they did a week ago. I really believe in the whole short in the game thing. Usually, I'm not into the short in the game thing, but when you got a defense this bad and you're a team that goes on a lot of long drives, if it can be a tighter game where you have a couple of those seven-minute drives and suddenly you're ahead on the road, that's the route, I think, for Green Bay to win is a lot of long drives running the ball, and I think they could do it.

I think they could do it in terms of scoring enough points to keep it interesting.

I think it's interesting if you're the 49ers and you're watching that Cowboys game and you saw just the aggressive manner in which they just approached even the coin toss, where packers win the toss. They say, We want the ball. A lot of teams defer. To go right down the field, that set the tone for that entire game. Like I said on Sunday, just seeing the way Jordan Love is carrying himself on that first drive and the throws he was making and the comfort he had in the pocket, escaping the pocket, setting his feet, keeping his eyes up, putting it right on the money. It's like he's going to come into San Francisco and be the same, like outstandingly confident quarterback. I'm wondering if the Niners, even with the coin toss, who wins the coin? Would the Niners change their game plan to not put Love in that same situation? Do they want to get on the field first and try to set the tone? Because I think, especially in the playoffs, the very beginning of these games, if you punch an underdog in the face, that can set the tone and you could take control early.

But if you get the Green Bay packers with another big score early to get rolling. It's going to be the same thing in San Francisco that it was in Dallas, where the whole building gets quiet and the nerves start to act up, and then maybe you make a mistake. Brock Purdy, as much as we like Brock Purdy, is not above making mistakes and forcing the Well, and I don't need to... When you look at number one seeds, and we could talk about how these are the best number one seeds, we're not that far removed from Christmas night. The Niners in a similarly huge spot at home getting absolutely torched by the Ravens and looking like a bad football team, they're not impervious.

No, I'm with you on that. We're playing Joe Berry's defense now, though.

That's true. I would say this, though. If you look at Green Bay's offense, I think a lot of times with young teams that are unplayoff tested, you go on the road and you get torched, you learn a lesson, you come back the next season. Eight of Green Bay's top offensive games in terms of EPA, eight out of eleven have been on the road. Their five highest point totals have been on the road, including last week when they destroyed Dallas. I think this is a team that like the Texans. That's why they're such a mirror of each other. They don't even know what they don't know on some level. It is this interesting matchup because it's like, Shana Han offense versus Shana Han disciple offense. I always wonder what that thing like, Shana Han and LaFleur are teaching each other's defenses, how to handle each other's offenses. They practice against a lot of They're not identical, but it's like they come from the same plant or tree or whatever you want to call it, whatever shrubbery.

I think it's a tree. I thought it was funny. A theme.

I know, but it's just like... It's everywhere. It is a tree. It's like a bush.

It's like hedges. It's like a long hedge. The same Earths.

Earth. Recovered. There was a theme between sources and people talking this week with these two teams that both coaches are just so happy that they have quarterbacks who just run the system.

Jordanlov just-What first, Aaron Rodgers?

Versus Aaron Rodgers, and even Jimmy G, to an extent, was maybe not totally embracing doing everything they were trying to meet in the middle where it's here. It's like these two guys are very similar in a way that they're great against pressure. Their numbers, when they're pressured, has been excellent this year. It's heavy play action. I would take Jordan Love long term over Brock Purdy. I don't even think that's controversial, though. I'm sure some people would take Purdy. I don't think that'd be crazy either. But Love is that special. But man, I think I would still... I guess I would take the points here, but man, I don't think there's any chance that the 49ers offense doesn't put up 35 points in this game. And that's where I disagree. If they're down 14-3, yes, it'll be the playoffs and it'll be tense in there. I actually still have faith that this 49ers team will get going unless the packers can really shorten the game offensively. They are going to torture Devandre Campbell and Quay Walker in this game Kyle Shanahan will. There's just too many weapons. I think starting with CMC, I don't see a great scenario where the packers run defense is overly competitive in this game.

It was nice for the packers, what they did last week. I still think the last six drives of the game count a little bit, and more importantly, the rest of the game-Not as much as the first six. The first four. They played four good drives, and then they basically gave up touch downs after that. They gave up a scoring drive.

But they're in a totally different defense just trying to lead clock at that point.

People say that, but they were just playing their defense.

Back through for 400 yards in that game, and it's like, we knew what was going on in the last quarter and a half.

I guess I put a ton more weight into the season as a whole than those four drives.

They did generate turnovers, though. They did it against Jared Goff on Thanksgiving.

That's what I'm saying. Why can't... And I know it's a Joe Barry defense, and it's been suspect throughout the year, but the Dallas offense, which is not quite the San Francisco offense.

It's not even close, I don't think.

Okay.

This has been a historical That's a pretty good offense.

Let's not move the goal pose here. We were singing Dax's praises as, if not the MVP, right behind whoever wins it. Ceedee Lamb, who was playing at a level that was an all-time wide receiver level. Jake Ferguson, Tony Pollard had a big game going into the play There were a lot of people... Brandon Cooke was on the rise. That was a excellent Cowboys offense, and all the data backs it up. The packers got them flustered early on. Because the offense played so well, it put the quarterback on the other side in a position where he was frazzled made mistakes. I'm just saying that I could see Brock Perry suffering the same fate if the Green Bay packers would get off to a hot start. I think this is a game that I don't feel comfortable about the home team covering. I think Jordan, Love, and the packers are playing at such a high level that I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt that their defense will find ways to slow down San Francisco and put pressure on the quarterback. I think this is a close game. You know what? I'm going to pick the packers.

I'm going to do it. I'm not going to lock it up. But I'm going to say this is-Outright win. I'm going to say this will be a year where both number one seeds don't survive, and I'm going to go something crazy, 30-27.

I think when you think about how they could do it, Charvarius Ward, I think, was overlooked for the all-Pro team. Ultimately, he might be the dude, him and Sneed. He should have made first team, maybe oversauce even on this year. But Ward can only do so much. That's the thing about this packer's offense is you never know who's going to pop up. Jane Reid didn't have a catch last week. He could be their leading receiver. Wicks. Ward can only cover one of those guys, Dobbs. The tight ends, I'm with you. But man, I just disagree because I think this is the best 49ers offense we've seen by far. Yeah, it was a good Cowboys offense, but they were seventh in DVOA going into last week. The 49ers have the best offense by the numbers of the last five years, including their own 49ers. Things like Ayuk, Debo, everything. Everything I've been led to believe about this team is that they are special. Yes, Rashaun Gary could get around the end, maybe on McKivitz, and you could have a crazy turnover game. Anything can happen. The packers are a worthy opponent being there, but nothing shows me that their defense can hold up for 60 minutes.

No, this one doesn't seem as funny either. I think they'll cover, if I had to guess. I think it might be a little bit of a let down of a Saturday.

I think what it comes down to, Mark, is I'm deep in my heart, and I know it was the Ravens, but I guess I don't trust Brock either. I feel like he could make mistakes in this game, and that could potentially turn it. Not just minor mistakes, like Dack mistakes from last week that can swing a game. Field position, TD, whatever.

To the prediction that you came up with there, there is one thing about these Shana and team, and it dates back years. But this year, in close games, they're one and four in close games. And Brock Purdy and friends have been oh and four in game-winning drive opportunities. And so if the packers can hang around, they suddenly become more dangerous by the minute. But I think this will be a operation that allows the Niners to go two and four in close games. I think they're going to win 27, 24.

And let's not forget, Kyle Shannon has his share of ghosts as well this time of year. Absolutely.

But not this time of year, not this weekend. He actually, I believe, leads all head coaches in playoff winning percentage.

But I'm saying he's blown title games, he's blown Super Bowl. Okay, he hasn't blown a divisional round game yet, but his ability to close out games in which they're winning in the second half. That's haunted him multiple times.

So does Matt LaFleur.

Sure. I mean, since week nine, these are the best two offenses in the league by base.

I mean, especially against the Niners, actually. So does Matt LaFleur.

Right. Shana Hans' own this match. I guess I hear what you're saying on Brock, and I think I'm slightly lower than consensus on Brock, and I hear what you're saying, but I just feel like, yeah, that's going to happen if they ever run into a good defense. That's not going to happen. They're not going to play a good defense this year until the Super Bowl if they make it. There are no good defenses left in the NFC other than the 49.

I don't even know what a good defense is anymore in this league, to be honest with you. We keep on seeing them, we get embarrassed and picked off.

One just got waxed.

I guess I would say ones that are capable of stepping up and having a difference-making game. They did it last week, Crikey. I would say that- This team did that last week. The Chiefs are capable, the Bills are capable, the 49ers are capable, the Ravens are certainly capable of having those These other teams, they're pretty mediocre. Got you. I hear you. Eric Armstead is back, by the way, and he has been the Django piece in terms of their run defense, which is going to be important for San Francisco. They're quite healthy. But same thing you said with the Ravens are true. The 49ers haven't played a game in forever. Not only have they not played in three weeks, but think of the games they played after that Ravens game. I guess it was just the commanders, and then they were wrestling since it started.

A long time ago.

It was forever.

Jim, any Even Saturday night. All right, let's take a break. Did you pick the game?

I am going to take the 49ers 41 to 31. Hello. Let's go way over.

All right, let's have some fun.

And by the way, the money line here, 49ers minus 440.

All right, let's take a break, and when we get back, we'll hit a little bit of NFL news, and then we'll hit the Sunday games. All right, welcome back. Yes, we'll take a little break now from the divisional round preview to what's going on in the news. Let's start with the news out of Dallas. We just talked about it on the Wednesday show. What is the decision that will come out of Jara World around Mike McCarthy in the future of that organization after another disappointing playoff loss, this time in the wild card round against the packers? The news broke late on Wednesday that Mike McCarthy will return to the Cowboys Cowboys, Jerry Jones released a statement as well detailing the team's unprecedented regular season success, three straight years of 12 wins, but also putting it out there and letting it, again, This is the ghost. We have struggled in the playoffs, but we believe what we have in place is good enough to eventually get over the hump. Mike McCarthy will get a fifth year with the Cowboys, just like in his fifth year with the Packers, they won the Super Bowl. That is what Jerry's mind track is on, if that makes any sense to you.

Here is Zaddy himself. Zaddy, he probably thought he was done, just like everybody else on Sunday. Now he's back on the podium with the star behind him, ready to announce his plans for the future. I believe that the direction, the leadership, everything is in place. I'm not very comfortable talking about myself, but I came here to win a championship. I didn't come here to get another contract. Or anything other than that. Hell, no. I came to Dallas.Hate about money. I came to win a championship. That's why I'm standing here and buy into us. Bye. Oh, Zaddy, you're unkillable. We need to do a better job, by the way, on the headshot we're using for Zaddy. I think it's accurate.

I don't know how Greg-We had a long conversation about this because it was the same one Sunday Night Football was using.

But yeah, he should take another.

Dan wants John Ham's picture to be put. It's like, that's not where we're going. What do you mean?

What are you trying to shame McCarthy?

I think McCarthy is a manly figure, and that is an accurate headshot. I will leave it at that. I would say one thing about this whole thing is you laid this out almost exactly, that you thought this would be a good idea for the Cowboys stand. Before these triple 12 win seasons, they had three out of four seasons where they won less than 10 games, and they were a non-factor. I guess the one thing you could go, and I know that there's the non momentum, Greg and Claybon worlds, and I get that, but like...

You're now lumped in.

You are part of that, but there is...

This has nothing to do with momentum, though.

Let him cook. Let him cook, Greg.

Where's he going? It's something different than that. That's the brain of the game. Mike McCarthy.

His continuity.

Mike McCarthy, to your point, probably thought he was gone. Dak Prescott, people were questioning his future. He's coming off like a disaster. I think, if anything, this Cowboys team has so much to prove because the story is so embedded that no one's going to even pay attention during the regular season. Maybe not a momentum thing, but maybe psychologically, they are the team with the chip on their shoulder. That said, I struggled to go down any of these paths ever again until they're literally being announced out of the tunnel at the Super Bowl.

Good luck with that. We're going to talk about it a lot.

I know, but I'm saying it just I wonder if it went so far. They all thought it was so cooked and done.

Perhaps, Greg, I oversimplified it a little bit yesterday when I said, All right, McCarthy's in his contract here, Dax in his contract here, just let him play it out, and let's see where the chips fall. The one catch here now is, okay, so you brought back the head coach, and I had thrown out this idea of make the team better, make some adjustments, have a nice draft, and maybe go add it one more year. It's a little more complicated in the sense that if you want to free up some dollars to help make the team better, that is in large part, you have to restructure Dax deal, which means getting in deeper with him. Whether it's funny money or not, it goes from one year to potentially a big contract where he's the highest paid player in the world. There still is this challenge to me where, okay, you're going to let the coach play out his contract, but are you going to now go all in on the quarterback. That will be the next step. What do the Cowboys do with Dax contract? That's going to be a storyline, like or not as well this winter.

I think they will adjust his contract, give him more money. We'll see. You're keeping Mike McCarthy because you think he works with Dak Prescott. I don't think you keep Mike McCarthy to bring in some new quarterback. That doesn't make sense. I think there could be changes. Dan Quinn could get a job and be interesting. If he doesn't get a job, is he definitely back There's some thought in Dallas. That might be a change, which is wild, but I think this is both a reasonable decision. It makes sense, and it probably won't work. But I don't know what else would... By work, I mean you make the Super Bowl. The bar is so high. It's a veteran team, and they have some young players, certainly, but they have a lot of really good players. So unless you had a better option, to me, the number one problem is there's something in the water. There's something there with Derry Jones. They're built up to be these huge superstars in Dallas, and it's like, I don't know what it is. They're bad at self-scouting. Whatever it is, they can't get over the hunt, but I think this is probably their best chance to have another crack at it.

I don't hate it. I'm with you, Dan.

Christ.

I'm not even a big McCarthy fan. I just don't have any... I think whatever is going on there is bigger than Mike McCarthy. I trust actually Mike McCarthy and this staff to at least get another crack at it more than Jerry Jones starting a new with some new guy. That seems even like a worse scenario.

Yeah, there's enough evidence that that is probably the likely scenario that they get back to the playoffs.

The statement that I was referring to that Jarrett put out, he includes in it, While we're all I'm disappointed with the result on Sunday and with our payoff record, I am 100% supportive of him as our head coach and ability to reach our goals. It's like even in the statement, you're talking about the failures in the playoffs, which just they're like, I mean, America's team. The narratives and the story lines around them are so ingrained that even in this statement where you're just announcing you're staying with the coach, you have to mention that, Oh, yeah, we suck in the playoffs, and that will carry them into next January. And the weight will get that much more, and we shall see if they... Hell, you got to get to the playoffs first. Nothing is assumed. It's just such a long climb, and that's why I think that was in part so devastating for them to just bottom out the way they did.

I know it's Zaddie's thing, but the whole like, Hey, trust me. Now they're going to overcommonate by talking too confident. There is a report, by the way, from Ed Wurder that Dan Quinn will be back if he doesn't get a head coaching job.

That makes sense, too, even though they did struggle down the That is the new rallying cry, Mark. Buy into us. Buy into us.

Trust me. Wasn't that at last?

I have to participate, but I don't emotionally-It worked on me.

You know what you can do. Buy into us. Buy into us.

I will in terms of having to speak about them to Greg's point. We will have to speak about them.

All right. In other news, hey, listen, this Bill Belichick coaching the Atlanta Falcons thing, I think it's going to happen. Rapp sheet reported on Thursday This day, sighting sources, former Patriots coach Bill Belichick will have a second interview with the Falcons Press this weekend after meeting with owner Arthur Blank one-on-one this past week. Things are ramping up with the greatest coach of all time. Josina Anderson also reported about the dynamics between Belichick and Rich McKay, the CEO there, and the idea that that's the best fit for Belichick when compared to any other potential in terms of their ability to work together, whatever that means.

He's like the CFO. But what about the GM there? Are they going to get rid of him? Who knows?

Gm has done a pretty good job, I think.

Yeah, from the Saints. What if you're like Brian Johnson? It's the Eagles offensive coordinator who interviewed for the Falcon's head coaching job today. It's like, you must be feeling like you are just wasting your time. Brian Callahan interviewed. Ejiro Evero, Anthony Weaver, all these other guys, Antonio pierce. They've interviewed I interviewed a lot of people, and yet it just feels like if they can make it work with Belichick, it's going to be Belichick. This is going to be wild. We'll wait for it to happen.

Mckay is the CEO there, by the way. The GM dynamic, this is Jocelyn's reporting, the GM dynamic in It is presumably more palatable for Bill in flowery branch, that's where the Falcons headquarters is, than it would be in Philly. As mentioned, both sides have been talking about it through this for a while. That's my previous reports. I expect Bill Belichick to reunite with some members of his former staffs whenever he makes it official. That's the other big part of this is what does Arthur Blank... Because Arthur Blank is not a dumb man. Arthur Blank saw what happened in New England in those final years and is going to probably be saying to Bill, Bill, we're going to let you shop for some groceries here. You're going to have a voice in how the team gets built. But your stabs were a butt the last couple of years.

I don't think he is even going to tiptoe.

I think Arthur Blank will say that they were a butt.

Within 15 yards of saying anything like that, I don't. What?

Really?

I mean, I guess- Then this isn't going to work, Greg. If the owner, and these owners are very confident men, successful people. He's not going to be afraid of Bill Belichick to say.

I think he is. I think it's very clear. I think he's not going to be telling him what to do with his coaching staff. First of all, owners shouldn't be doing that to any coach. He's going to let the coach decide his coaching staff, or else what's the point of being a head coach?

It's not telling Bill what to do. It's conversations about what went wrong near the end. And obviously, some issues with the coaching staff played a part in the demise of that dynast.

I think that's a fair I get that because it's Bill Belichick, the dynamic is different than if you were hiring a coordinator to a head coach for the first time.

The guy isn't flying out to Carolina to interview Chris Tabor. He's flying on his jet to interview Belichick because Belichick's interviewing him.

But flip it around, though.

Greg, you're emotional because it's Bill, and I understand.

Forget what the owner is doing. I think it's a fair concern for the Falcons fans. You're getting a latter era Bill Belichick who wants to hire four assistant coaches, and three of them are from his family. It's like, I would like to think that Bill... Can he change the way he finished in New England, or is it going to just be you're going to have Bill O'Brien as your offensive coordinator?

I think it's just an 81-year-old owner who wants a title before he dies, and it's not a confident move. It's more like, Man, I'm a lot of ideas of how to do this in a normal way.

See, you just want this to fail. That's what's going on here.

What are you talking about?

You don't want Bill to have a successful second act out of New England.

If you don't think I'm becoming a Falcon's fan when Bill Belichick is the head coach, you're missing the whole point.

But you're calling it desperate. You're calling it desperate. This is a move that an owner that's getting older is making.Yes.

Because that's the information. Thinking clearly. I don't know about thinking clearly, but I think it's just like, We've tried it all the normal ways. Here, take my franchise. That's basically it.

We'll see if it works. Do you also think that Bill Belichick is a fraction of his former self, or is Arthur Blank hiring the best coach of all time?

I don't think he's the same as he was. I think there's a scenario where it could work out pretty well.

You better get him a good quarterback. That's what you're doing. He's a good quarterback. That goes without saying. Right away.

I mean, you could go win that division. You could have some fun. He's going to be a good game day coach. I think he might be reinvigorated a little bit.

I think it's well, and yes, we're going to get to it when it becomes official, but well worth the gamble. Unless Charlie Weis is the offensive coordinator. Someone talked to Bill about getting some fresh young minds in the Bill?

Does a team that pumped in fake crowd noise into their stadium want to sell more tickets or sell out every game? You would with Bill Belichick.

Absolutely. Not that they weren't already. If you don't think Josh McDaniels is his offensive coordinator, I get it. See, that's what I'm saying.

This is crazy.

It's happening.

But they did have success together.

Yeah, with Tom braided. Go look at Josh McDaniels anywhere else minus Tom braided. When he went to the Rams last Can't Bell check anywhere else without Tom Brady?We're.

Going to go down that road.I will. If we're going to go down that road, Mac Jones almost won Rookie of the Year with Josh McDaniels over Jamal Chase. He went to the Pro Bowl.

I don't hate McDaniels on the staff.

That's literally the most recent example.

I don't want Josh McDaniels as his head coach. Oc is a little different.

Do you want to hit on what's going on here in Los Angeles with the Chargers, too?

Well, just quickly, they interviewed Mike Grable today, which was interesting. They've interviewed a lot of people for their GM and their- Jim Harbaugh as well.head coach. Jim Harbaugh was one. Dan Quinn was one. Leslie Frazier, our coworker, was one. Hey. I think they gave Kelen Moore. Remember Kelen Moore? He was the hot guy last year at this time.

Super hot.

Not happening now. They've had a variety of interviews, but it's been interesting. It's been quiet around Rable. Go defensive, Coach.Not.

A lot of interest. Interesting.

Man, I feel like that's Harba's job to lose, but it may be the... Listen, you also got to pay him, or the charger is going to pay Harba.

They also keep interviewing guys who have connections to Harba there for the GM job, so I think you would be right. Then, yeah, Cliff Kingsbury got an interview as the OC with Chicago, which is interesting because he was the quarterback's coach of Caleb Williams last year. As USC fans will know, the year where Caleb Williams looked much worse than the year before when Cliff Kingsbury wasn't there, for what it's worth.

I'm looking at what C. J. Stroud is doing this year, and I'm like, If I'm the owner of the chargers, I don't have to deal with Arba being a pain in the ass, but just go get the OC, Slowik, pair him with Justin. Yeah, he's got a such-I don't I don't have to deal with all the other stuff, and maybe I get a guy that's on the come up that's much cheaper. That feels like a potential charges move, too.

I would say this. When they went and got Brandon Staley, there was a similar DNA of a really young, hot coach. I mean, Sloic has had, I think, eight years in in the league, and I think the first seven, four of them, he was a defensive coach, an assistant, three offensive, then an offensive coordinator. So he's young. He's got to work.

He could sell that, too, in an interview. I work on both sides of the ball.

We worked for a pro football focus. There's a lot of Brandon There's some staley elements going on there. I don't know if it's a little bit of a risk, but he's certainly showing we can do this year.

Spicy. All right, let's get back to the games. Let's head to Sunday, the early game, the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Head to Ford Field to face the lines. Now, this is also a sizey spread, six and a half points. The Bucs are a four-seed NFC South champion who put the woeful. I'm going to say it. I can't believe I'm going to say this. Never thought I would. The Morribund eagles were put to sleep on Monday night. So the Bucks advance and get the lines coming off that one-point win over the Rams in one of the most emotional and fun moments in modern history for the lines. So, Tariko, back on the call, back in Detroit with Collinsworth and Stark on the sideline. It, Greg. I really love this game because I think you got all the fun as a football fan. You're going to get to enjoy that again about the vibe in Detroit and all the history around the team. And then you got this Tampa Bay team that is in full on nobody believes in us mode, and no one's rooting for us. We have nothing to lose. And who's the one, if you had to pick one middle of the road quarterback to be the guy that's walking out on the field there?

It's Baker. It's Baker.

When you said earlier this week, usually when you get to this point in the season, there's six or seven teams that have a real shot or are exciting. There's one surprise team, and then there's one that you don't think shouldn't really be there. You thought these matchups were great because we didn't have one of those teams. As you were saying that, I thought you were setting up that the Bucks are that team. Now, they're fun, and they've earned their way here. But over the course the season, they've been mediocre. They're pretty average on offense, they're average on defense. They have players we recognize, and they have moments, but they haven't really shown anything over the course of the season until that wild card game where they could have a big time statement victory, really convincing win. That was their best game of the season. It was against a team that looked like they were ready to go home. It's just what Baker we get. It's usually whether you get pressure on them or not. It's That's not a secret. These two quarterbacks, their numbers are outstanding when they're not pressured, and they're not great when they are pressured.

It's just golf is even more extreme than Baker. But can you get pressure on him? Maybe it's Aiden Hutchinson versus Gadecki on the right side, but they've played well. For the most part in that first matchup, Tristan Wurfs handled the hell out of Aiden Hutchinson. He had his worst game of the entire season. They move Hutchinson around, so sometimes he's in the middle and on the right tackle. But if you can to protect Baker, you're going to have a little bit of a chance. I think the Rams made the lines, linebackers especially, look lost, look bad in coverage last week. That's where you can get Chris Godwin or you can get Kate Otton over the middle of the field, and Baker can do work there.

It was a while ago, but when they played, the Detroit Lions won 20 to 6 in golf-Weird game. It was a weird game. The Lions had almost nothing on the ground, but their running backs were banged up. That That was the lowest points the Bucks have scored all year. But Goff, when he's played Tampa's defense, he's got a two-on-one record. He's got at least 353 passing yards in every one of those games. He's thrived. I think it's interesting because the history of these two quarterbacks, obviously both discarded by their first teams. It was Goff that last week brought Detroit the decades-weighted playoff game. Baker Mayfield did the same for Cleveland. I find it interesting on that front. They're both in playing style. You're wondering which The quarterback makes the most mistakes because that probably leads to DNA of where the game goes. But I don't know, if you were the Niners and they did the playoffs differently and the number one seed could pick which team they wanted to play, of course, you're picking the Bucks of all these teams that are left. You wouldn't want to play the packers. I feel like that's a ridiculous situation.

Detroit, this is one team where the home stadium, the journey, matters a lot. I think crowd noise last week, the energy in that place, galvanized the team. I guess it's simplistic It's fantastic to say all that, but it's like you are human beings in an environment where you're in a Roman Coliseum and the crowd is going absolutely nuts.Go.

Ask Dan Campbell and those players. Absolutely.the way they talked about it after the game.

I think if you're the lions, you've got to be thrilled that you got a really hot and cold Bucks team that last week, and I think, look, I couldn't have been happier for Mayfield, and the Bucks have better players than people realize. They've got a good group of wide receivers. Their running game has been a little bit better. I don't think it'll happen this week, but it's like when the Bucks falter, they really do. We saw that they lost to the Panthers two weeks ago. I think if you're Detroit, you've got to be pretty thrilled with this matchup.

Yes, I agree with that. It set up very well for them because even if... We all knew that even before that game was played because it was like, the winner of this Ram's Lion's game gets The corpse that was the Eagles or the Bucks who were not a highly respected team coming out of a weak division. But I also just in fairness to the Bucks, you don't think about it this way, but they've lost one game since the calendar turned over to December. They have been playing winning football, building confidence, and Baker was banged up, obviously, throughout the end of that season, but he didn't look that way this past Monday night.

They said he's almost fully healthy.

Yeah, I was going to say, I don't remember him taking any huge licks in that game. When I was feeling pretty dangerous. I really like it. Now, the question to me is, can the Bucs defense, which is filled with veterans and dudes that have been through the wars before, can they put the pressure on Goff? Goff was outrageous in the wild card round. 21 He won for 21 for 266 in a touch when he wasn't pressured in that game. So he will, as we've seen all season.

Frazzled a few times in the big spots and almost lost the game with that lateral, with the sack where he ended up tripping.

He was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks per next-gen stats, and it was one of six for 11 yards. Isn't that the story forever, Greg? That it's like, it can change real quick with Goff, and it all depends on making him move his feet and speed him up a little bit. Can the Bucs defense do that?

Right. He's been great against the Blitz, which is against what you have thought of over the course of the season. I think it's more because they're great as an offense against the Blitz. You thought about it. I thought about on Monday night. It's not about just Jalen Hertz. It's about the offensive line. It's mostly about the coaching. Ben Johnson has had answers. He had answers in that first game. Even though they couldn't finish drives, they moved the ball really well against the Bucs throughout. It's good that they've already seen him. This offensive line has a reputation of being great. There's been times this year where I don't think they've played great, but they should win the matchups on the outside here. The Bucks pass rushers aren't great on the outside. On the inside, it's Veia and it's Cansy, and Kalajia Cansy was awesome last week. I think that's a good on good matchup, but that's maybe where the lines are a little weaker up front with Glasgow or whoever it's going to be. Even Ragnar, I think struggled last week. If you can get some interior pressure on Jared Goff, you have a chance in this game, obviously.

I think it matters that they talked about Sam Laporta being another healthier week. He's getting better. Played well last week. It didn't even look hurt to me. Amunra St. Brown almost never gets talked about, and he couldn't have been more dangerous a week ago. It's like, if you're the Bucks, you've got to shut down a lot more weapons than you did last week when you played an A. J. Brown free. Eagles's team was falling apart at the seams.

They give up a ton of big plays all year. The Bucks are a solid run defense, and they've given up about as many explosive plays as any team in the NFL. It could be like a Jamieson-Williams type of game, getting vertical, because they take their chances and they leave Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis on an island sometimes, and it doesn't work out. The Bucks, on the other hand, they're always trying to go deep. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Baker is such a high variable quarterback. I don't think he's had an incredible year, but I think he has been the best version of Baker, where he's about the average starting quarterback. The way he gets to average, though, is like, he's had six or seven really impressive games, and he's quietly had about six awful games. His average is not just staying right in the middle. It's either it's going to be great or it's not going to be great. I don't know. The lions give up a lot of big plays. They're not a great defense. They're much better stopping the run than they are stopping the pass. So maybe this would be a good matchup.

I think relatively, they are a good matchup.

I I'll pick the lions here, but I love this game. I just think it really sets up well. For Baker, who has always been, like him or not, has always been good theater, it would not stun me if a major conversation Sunday night is, Holy shit, Baker went off and is playing in the NFC title game, because I just think he's all about getting into these pockets, right? These pockets of confidence and where the moment meets him as unlikely as it may be, and then he seizes it. Now, could it go the other way? And he has four picks? Yes. But I think he balls out in this game. And then it becomes, does the Detroit offense have the ability to put up 30 points? And I think they will, but I think I'm going to do a Sessler special here. I'm going to go lines 31, Bucks 30, and like a classic, a divisional round classic, and that's my pick.

The Bucks are one and six when they've allowed more than 20 points. I think that says a lot about some of their offensive games, where they've not performed. I think the Lynes take care of business. It's a more intriguing matchup than I would have thought it was a couple of months ago. I'm going to go Detroit 27, Bucks 16.

I hear you guys on the crowd being a factor. Baker Mayfield actually said he talked to some of the Rams players, two Rams legends here going at it, Eric Goff and Baker Mayfield. The Rams said they've never been in a building like that. They just thought. They handled it well, ultimately, that Maybe that affected those early timeouts, but they were moving the ball on the lines. I think the lines defense has more answers than people realize that the lines are minus 278 in this game. I think Brian Branch on Godwin, he can slow him down enough. You're getting some health back here. I think James Houston is going to be active for this game. So Aleem McNeil has been added to the mix here. They're a little better. I think people have missed how incredibly good Aiden Hutchinson had been the last three weeks. 23 pressures. It's not 23 pressures in three weeks where it's like 21 hurries. No, it's seven sacks, eight quarterback hits, and I think six more hurries. I like their defense. I like their offense. I like all the lines. Let's lock it Heyo.

Heyo. That's a solid lock, but you might be sweating it. That's all I'm saying.

I wouldn't be surprised if I am sweating it, but this is what you can do when you finish the competition. Just pick the teams you like.

Maybe in your mind.

That's what I'm doing, though, the same note. I've finished the competition and just going-You're looking to shock the world.

Everybody's got their own little competitions going on right now. By the way, the weather in Detroit. Oh, boy, it is going to be cold, sub-zero. Who knows? Maybe some snow. Todd Bowles has asked about this. The lines, by the way, have played in the dome for 50 years.

Looking forward towards Detroit Good. The weather has been a factor in some of the play-out games, even for the most prepared teams. Today, it's 13 in Detroit, which doesn't compare to some of the temperature that we're talking about. Any special plans to acclimate the team to not only endure, but perform in those temperature?

That's a long question.

You do know we play indoors, right? They got a dome. No, nothing planned. We're indoors, and we only have to be outside for 20 seconds getting off the bus going under the thing. So we'll be okay.

He handled that. I think a lot of people-He could have buried that poor woman. I think a lot of people have suspected that was not a sports reporter, but a local news reporter.

No, this is a playoff's thing where you see the local news flies in for the first time.

But I'm sure she wanted to... That's that.

Fifty years, though, from the Silver Dome to Ford Field. This isn't new. It's not like they It reminds me of the first big time when I was 23 years old at the Journal News. They sent me to cover a Mets game, a Mets Rockies game, and I was over the moon. It was a dream come true to cover a Major League baseball game. They sent me, me and this other guy, Jeff, and we were filling in for Pete Abraham, who now covers the Red Sox or the Globe, but back then covered the Mets. It was September. They were playing out the string, and so they sent the two young kids there just to get some reps and give them experience. God damn it, it's the eighth ending, and the Mets were throwing a perfect game, and the Mets had never thrown a no hitter to that point. Me and Jeff are looking at each other like, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to. Luckily, I don't know, luckily, but the perfect game gets broken up. There's no historic game, and we're not freaking out because the newsroom was calling up to the press box like, All right, we're going to send somebody to help you guys.

We're like, You're going to have to get down here. You're going to have to go there. If this happens, it was like, Oh, my God. So I went down in the locker room, crisis averted, and I go down to talk to Clint Hurdle, who was a grizzled old baseball man who was the manager of the Rockies. Preston Wilson was a star for the Mets or a prospect for the Mets that didn't quite work out and then became a star with the Rockies. He didn't play. It was a getaway day. It was an afternoon game. But I was 22, 23. I asked the question to Clint Hurdle. I go, Clint, any reason why you didn't play Preston Wilson in this meaningless game in the middle of September? He turns to me and he looks at me and that I'm not cut out for this moment. He goes, Is it okay if I give my players a day off? Is that okay with you? Is that okay? And literally, I melted into a puddle. I just thought of Clint Hurdle burying a young journalist and seeing Todd Ball as being a class act with that woman who was way out of her depth in a big spot.

That was story time.He.

Did a good job.That was a good story. I hadn't heard that one.

All right. Anything else with this game?

Did we all make a pick?I believe we did.

We did.

All right, so then let's move. I can't wait for that game. Just the vibe.

You will have to wait until Sunday. It's not happening.I.

Like that it'sI cannot, though. It's Tariko and Collinsworth on a noon Pacific game, which it just feels nice and counterintuitive. And we're going to be-Transgressive, really.

Yes, it is transgressive. For those of you overseas that have access to Sky Sports and their NFL coverage, we'll be on at halftime of that game of chopping it up. I'm right, right? That's right.

That's right. So don't let go do the halftime thing where you go do other human things. Do not.

Do not be a human. Be a football fan 24/7 every second. All right, the last game, and it's a one. Mark, you were saying you're not overly excited for it, but-I did not.

That is not what I said.

I get it. You always want new things, but I like classic matchups. You're only going to get so many 10 years from now, we're not going to have them anymore. You know what I mean? It's like Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen. You know what I treasured? I didn't care, Greg, how many there were. If you gave me Tom braided and Peyton Manning in January, I was clicking my heels, running to the television set, and I know you don't even want to watch this game, Mark.

First of all-Okay, go ahead. Ten years from now, you still will be getting Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I promise you.

Mark likes new stuff, though. He was like, Give me the Trent Green Matt Schaub showdown.

No, I was saying that- This is new to me.

This is That's interesting.

I was saying that the Texans and packers are very intriguing to me. I was not discounting Chiefs of Bills. They have played each other a lot. I guess everyone's... I keep hearing people are so fascinated that Mahomes is playing his first road play-off.

You know how fascinated they are? It's the game of the week presented by DraftKings.

But of course, it's the game of the week. So I'm not sliding it, but it's just like...

Draftkings, Mark.

It's the game of the week.

I guess it's just a human thing. Even with me, when it was Manning versus braided, part 19, and there was these articles coming out, let's rank the 19 times they played. It was like, Come on, people. I like to see new things. I like fresh new experiences.

I'm with Dan. I'm not going to win this.

You can have it all, though.

You really can. Because you got to get the others. This is the more rare thing, ironically. It feels like it's happened a lot, but you only get these so much. But you know it's a great rivalry, and this is where I'd push back because this is new. You're getting different versions. Sometimes you got the Patriots version where he was throwing to Aaron Dobson, and they had no defense, and they had to score 30, and then Payton Manning comes back. In this case, these are totally different teams than they were two years ago. It's interesting to me that the Bills, you feel like they're the minor player in this, right? But they've won three straight in Kansas City in the regular season, but they haven't won them in the playoffs. They've lost the two that have been in the playoffs. Now it's here at Buffalo where we have I haven't seen it. To me, it is different because this is a totally different Chiefs team with a great defense.

Kansas City on the road bar.

It's never happened. Anyone listening to this knows that I'm being set up as some strawman person.

I actually think If it weren't Tony Romo on the call, I'd be-Oh, Mark's right.

We are sick of it. It's like, All right, great.

I did not say that at all.

I'll let you play your little parlor game, but it's like, literally, that's not what I'm saying.

I'm also sick of everyone saying like, Oh, it's Tony Romo on Patrick Mahomes and Josh Ali.

You know what? I like Tony Romo on Josh Allen. You know what?

You do the same thing to Mark. Put a name on it. That's Mark that says that.

That is. I saw a tweet about it, too.

But that I do back. I think part of it is you run out of things to say about Patrick Mahomes, but this is a completely different Chief's team. I think you're right. There are elements to this team that there's a challenge that we're not present. Before, it was like a video game or when Hulk Hogan would go down to the end and just body slam someone and you'd win every Sunday night main event. It's like this chief's team-Saturday night main event. This Chief's team is vulnerable. This is a Sunday night main event.

But yeah, but Hulk Hogan, it would be Saturday night. Right.

It replaced SNL every fourth week.

It wouldn't be the body slam. It would have been the kick to the face, followed by the atomic leg drop.

You're right.

You want to just punch me in the face.

Didn't he body slam like Andre the giant?

Then he gave him the leg drop.

Sure, but that was the biggest body slam in the history of wrestling.Wrestlemania.

3.right.in the Pontiac Silverdome. There you go. See how it all connects? Madison, behind the glass, thought this was a wasteful conversation. Multiple cities.

Connected to Detroit and the big old football game up there.

Remember that conversation before the show? We keep it a little tighter today or something.

I don't. I don't know what you're talking about. What else? I mean, we can end the show right now if we want to stay on time.

We literally haven't even talked about this game. I'm excited for the Sneed, like Lejarious Sneed last week. My favorite clip of the week was him driving Tyrie kill into, as Mark would say, Mother Earth, below the Earth. I mean, it was crazy.

Tyreek even gave him a little pop on social. I've never been bodied like that or whatever the term would be.

So Sneed faced off against Stefan Diggs in this first matchup, which really wasn't that long ago. It was week 14. They matched up for 23 routes. In those 23 routes, Josh Allen tried Stefan Diggs five times. The Bills had a total of three yards in that game. Sneed absolutely destroyed Stefan Diggs, which that's an interesting match. If that could happen again, they have a shot, but I do think they're better prepared here with Shaqir, with Kincaid, who's getting most of the snaps. I thought it was interesting last week. They didn't really play Knox and Kincaid together. It was mostly just Kinkade. So they like having three receivers on the field, even if it's not Gabe Davis. I think if they were a basketball team, it's almost like keeping people out of the paint to let a little more space over the middle of the field in general. And since Joe braided is taking over, the offense isn't better, but it has been different. They've been more willing to run the ball. And I think this matchup, as much as it's about Mahomes and Allen, also might be about which team will actually stick with the running game and be successful, because I think both coordinators have shown they will dare the other team to run.

Spagnola did it quite effectively against Buffalo in that first matchup. Even though Buffalo started that game well, their offense was in quicksand for most of I think one thing that's different about McDermott running this defense, and maybe one of the changes that happened was some of the playoff stuff that happened against the Chiefs, was that when they dabbled in week 14, they blitzed at the highest rate they have against Mahomes, and they were more successful doing it.

That said, all this business about Mahomes being on the road, his completion percentage is higher on the road. His yards per attempt, higher on the road. His passer rate, higher on the road. Sack rate, lower, and passing success rate, higher.

Yes. If they finish off a couple of drives last week, people are over the moon saying that they're fixed, and we'll see. I think they got the season. Like you were saying, Greg, earlier, you're looking at the whole season. You can't just look at a game. The whole season tells me they're going to struggle again here to put points on the board and finish off drives. That's why I like the bills in this game, because I think that's what's going to end the chief season. The bills will finish off the drives that the Buffalo, that the Chiefs won't be able to. But not to swerve left, but I want to touch on it just because I'm looking at it, I'm staring at it, and I knew it, I felt it, and then I looked at the numbers, and my goodness. So Stefan Diggs, It was a weird year.

Yeah.

He starts the season with five 100-yard games in his first six weeks. Everything is going to plan. Since October 22nd, a loss to the Pats, these are his numbers. 6 for 58, 9 for 70, 6 for 86, 3 for 34, 4 for 27, 6 for 74, 4 for 24, 4 for 48, 5 for 29, 4 for 26, 7 for 87, 7 for 52. Then in the playoff game, more of the same where he was-7 for 52.

That was the last one.7.

For 52, yeah. It's been an odd season. They have not been on the on the page. You've seen that frustration. It's a good thing Khalil Shaqir has stepped up this year. It's a good thing that they now have a Pro-Bull type player in James Cook because that connection has been off all year.

It makes me believe that this is Stefan Diggs' last run with the Bills. Now, I think he would be an interesting trade candidate, but he's 30. I can't imagine he's just suddenly turned old, but the big play is just having big in there. I just have a feeling. Gabe Davis' status is really important. I think the injuries are so important for this game for the Bills because I hear what you're saying, and I'm leaning Bills. I guess I want the Bills because like Mark, I guess I want something different. I like the idea that they were 6 and 6 in the way they're rallying. I like the idea of a Bill's Ravens AFC Championship game. That's really exciting to me. But the practice reports are just massive, especially in the secondary. I'm going to focus it there because there's linebackers, there's other stuff. But Christian Bedford, been their best outside corner, to Ron Johnson, an all-pro slot cornerback, both on the injury report, and both seem legitimately like, I don't know if they're going to play or not. They could fully play, they could not. These guys last week had to count on players we hadn't seen much all season.

Demar Hamlin was on the field throughout the end of that game because of injuries. Von Miller played throughout the end of that game and actually had a couple of pressures made me think, I wonder if they go back to Von this week because he showed something. But that was all because of injuries. Their linebackers were gone, and they might get them both back. They might get Bernard and Dodson back. They might get neither back. So Gabe Davis is another question mark. These are seven or eight starters where it's like they might play, they might not. And that's a pretty big deal.

And at that I said, I'm not scared, and I don't think anyone is scared of the Chief's weapons for the most part. You want to have those guys in the field.

I'm scared of two, Kelsey and Rishee Rice.

We just talked about Stefan Diggs, Mark. Travis Kelsey is coming off a game with three drops, and he has not been himself this year, he's going to need to make the plays that he hasn't been making.

They lead the league in drops. I guess I'm just wondering if everyone waiting for the Chiefs to become last year's Chiefs, it's like, actually, isn't it more likely that their season ends with another duplicate performance where wide receiver X, Y, or Z lets them down in a key spot? That's more likely. I'm just saying I think that's been a pretty consistent narrative.

The defense is better, Greg, right? It's way better.

It's the best. I think the route is more that, yeah, some of that stuff happens, and they win a game 20 to 16, or they win a game... Because, okay, if...

This was the Kaderius-Toni offsides game where it's like little mistakes cost them the play of the game.

I hear what you're saying, though, but to that point, they held the bills down in that game. Even though they weren't great offensively, if not for that call, if not for Tony lining up 6 inches in the neutral zone, the bills in this game. The Chiefs win a game like that against a good opponent because of their defense, primarily, and because Mahomes made big plays when it mattered. He ran the ball pretty well last week. I mean, that's a thing. Both of these quarterbacks are going to run the ball well, but you're just going to be more surprised when Mahomes does it. I just can't. In fairness-I think they're going to win, and yet I don't want it to happen, so I'm not going to pick it. Sorry, Chiefs. We're routing against you.

If Tony stayed on sides, Josh gets the ball back within a minute Good point that out. I just got a weird feeling about the Bills and Eric, the producer. I like it, dude. I like the energy. I like that they went through hell, and then they came out and survived it. Now Josh Allen at home, running downhill, impervious to anything pain and feeling like... What he said at the end of last week's game was interesting to me that we're like everybody else now. We're out of that wilderness where we were fighting for our lives. I think they're playing with a level of confidence that is going to be the difference against a KC team that's just simply, even though better on defense, not as explosive and not even close. I think that's why they're going to win. I think they're going to win this game 27 to 20.

It feels almost fitting that the season, everything went wrong. It feels like it should go right eventually. They were heavy favorites for the last couple of seasons, and things just fell apart. Abruptly, horrifically big moments. And this year, there was lulls, big lulls, and finger on the panic button moments. You fire an OC, you have the Sean McDermott hit piece, and then all of a sudden, they're right back here, and it seems like their trajectory is hitting their peak right there at the moment.

They're undefeated since that article came out.

Yeah, you have the players. The coach got a game ball, and you have players yelling in the locker, You got your back, Coach. I mean, there's so many weird moments where this season that they weren't maybe considered a Super Bowl favorite. This is the year where everything seemed like, Well, this is the following. This is where it breaks, the damn breaks, and it all falls apart. Here we are again against the Chiefs, against Patrick Mahomes. This time, we're in Western New York, Bills Mafia home game. It's theater, dude. It's crazy. There you go. I like that.

I don't know why in my gut, all that. The Chiefs remind me so much of the Patriots.I mean, they're so different.I see that, too. But just all this makes logical sense. I've been saying all year, maybe this is the year for the Bills. They get as close as possible, and I'm going to pick them because I want it to happen. And yet, that's the moment where the champs, and the Chiefs are the champs. They're the defending champs. They've done it twice with Patrick Mahomes. They've literally never not won a divisional round game with Patrick Mahomes. They've won every single one. It's like, they are going to be tough to knock out, but I think the Bills can do it. I think Greg Ruso can have a big-time game. The Chief's tackles are where they're a little vulnerable. He had a really nice game the the first time, I noticed, against the Chiefs, too. So get some pressure on Mahomes. Get it done, Bills. Be fun.

I feel like every... Oh, here we go.

Sorry, Mark, didn't mean to cut you off. There is no video this week, but I did want to get on record. The Westling, the Cincinnati Zoo, will be taking the Chiefs in this game. I'm saying this in a Bills' sweater, so I almost forgot to just even mention it.

The freefall, it's almost like nick Siriani is in Cincinnati right now because they have lost, I believe, five of six, the Zoo.

So they need-It goes bold here, though, with a road underdog, even though it's the Chiefs. It's still there were other options out there.

A lot of infighting over there, and it's shown to be a concern. I love what Eric said. Because I think that's exactly what the Bills have been. Whenever you go back and watch these documentaries of three quarters of Super Bowl winning teams, there were these low points in the season where everything felt like a catechum of just a mess, just a disaster. It's like the Bills looked shot and gone to the point where the zoo, nick, said they weren't going to make the playoffs. I think he's right at some point in the season. I think now you're getting a version of Josh Allen and the entire team that is driven and is them against the world.

That's sports. You know who did it? I think it came up earlier in the show. That early Aaron Rodgers-Packers team. I think they were 6-6.

They were super banged up.

They ran off a streak to make the playoffs and just kept winning.

But look at both Giants' teams, the Patriots.

They were a six seed. The Bills, weirdly, have all this going on, and yet they were the two seed. That's a weird thing. Here's the thing. If the Chiefs win this game and then win the Super Bowl, they had those moments, too, where everyone gave up on them and they hit their darkest moment. It all is there.

It was never quite as dark, though. No. The Chiefs always had that buffer in that division.

The money line here, by the way, is minus 142 for the Bills. The Bills are two and a half point favorites. When you're a home two and a half point favorite, I'm always a little anxious, but it's definitely Vegas being like, I don't know. We don't know.

Because that's almost like the built in. They built that in as the home. Exactly. Vegas says it's a coin flip.

It's basically a coin flip. The numbers have loved the Bills all season. There's something about the Chiefs that defy numbers.

Something about you, baby. That's an MJ deep cut off the Dangerous album. All right. Anything else? Anything else? All right, good. You know where to find us on Sunday night. We're going to have recaps of all the games we just previewed. Check out NFL Plus, where we have the dreamatorium cooking up Danger this week. And also, Sky Sports. Be there on Sunday because we will. Until then. Keep the call.